Euro comes alive vs. yen

It’s EUR/JPY where the real action has been this morning. The push back above the 102.00 level means that the cross has now pushed above the late June high of 102.63, so the cross has now broken out of the range that has held for the past 3 ½ months. Also of note on the charts is the move above the 200d moving average (currently at 101.77) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drawn from the March high to the July lows. Technically at least, this creates a fairly positive picture for the cross.

In the wider picture, the fact that risks assets have taken the Fed announcement so well suggests that the yen could continue to be under modest pressure. There were the usual comments regarding yen strength from officials overnight (taking decisive action against it “if needed”), together with a further downgrade of growth forecasts from the government. It’s certainly the case that the yen has been less correlated with risk assets of late. For example, the strong correlation between other risks assets and USD/JPY (so stronger emerging equities seeing weaker yen) has weakened recently over the past four months.

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