Investors wary ahead of Greek Referendum

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar offered little through domestic trade as softer commodity prices and the Greek credit crunch weakened risk appetite. Struggling to break above 0.7650 the AUD was forced downward as the monthly trade balance report failed to meet market expectations. Slipping lower the Aussie found support on moves toward 0.7580/90 and was bolstered by weaker than anticipated US employment data edging back through the 0.76 handle to open this morning buying 0.7630 U.S cents. With market focus primarily on the ever unfolding Greek debt saga domestic retail sales will offer some macroeconomic distraction, however we expect investors to be somewhat hesitant given the weekends significant risk event. Watch the AUD remain range bound into the weekly close with weighty market movements expected on open Monday.

• We expect a range today of 0.7580 – 0.7730

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar enjoyed a mixed session Tuesday bouncing of early losses on the back of weaker than anticipated U.S Employment data. Having dropped through 0.67 the kiwi touched intraday lows of 0.6650 forced lower by weaker commodity prices and risk off appetite. Support came on the back of soft U.S jobs data as non-farm payroll numbers failed to meet market expectations and the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest level since 1977. Edging higher the Kiwi struggled to break through 0.6730 and opens this morning buying 0.6722 U.s cents as attentions turn to the all-enveloping European debt crunch.

• We expect a range today of 0.6630 – 0.6810

Great British Pound:

Sterling was again range bound when traded against its U.S counterpart despite increased construction spending and soft American employment data. An unexpected dip in the Nationwide house price index forced the Pound below 1.56 before edging higher on improved construction PMI numbers. A weaker than expected non-farm payroll print and dramatic dip in the labour force participation rate failed to fuel a Cable run as Sterling struggled to break above 1.5630. With attentions directed toward the Greek debt crisis services PMI will over some macroeconomic relief however we expect volumes to remain subdued into the weekends significant risk events.

• We expect a range today of 2.0350 – 2.0550 

Majors:

In a return to macroeconomic news the Greenback edged lower overnight as Employment data and Jobs growth failed to meet market expectations. June’s non-farm payroll report showed just 223,000 new jobs were added to the economy while the Labor Department revised down April and May’s prints by 60,000. Further compounding the sour outlook the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 38 years as 430,000 employees dropped out of the labour pool. The step decline in labour force membership cancelled out a drop in overall unemployment extending the timeline of expectation for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Analysts now anticipate record low interest rates will remain unchanged through September with just 50% calling for a rate adjustment prior to Christmas. The euro edged higher on the back of US data weakness touching overnight highs of 1.1118 before investor’s squared positions leading into the Independence Day long weekend and Greek Referendum. Tsipras and Varoufakis found unlikely support from the IMF throughout Thursday as the global economies lender of last resort submitted an assessment suggesting Greece will require extensive monetary support and extended periods of debt relief if the economy is to rebuild and reduce its debt to GDP ratio. The relationship between Greece and its Creditors already stood on shaky ground but now it appears crack are forming amongst the Troika of lenders further muddying the waters and highlighting the problems ahead regardless of the result on Sunday. Attentions through Friday will be all but consumed by the ongoing credit crisis with significant market volatility expected on Monday.

Data releases:

• AUD: AIG Services Index and Retail Sales m/m  
• NZD: No Data 
• JPY: No Data   
• GBP: Services PMI
• EUR: Spanish, Italian, French, German and Eurozone Services PMI and Retail Sales       
• USD: Bank Holiday