Aussie range bound as price pressures stagnate

Australian Dollar:

The Australian Dollar opens virtually unchanged buying 0.8778 U.S cents and seemingly remains range bound. Yesterday’s CPI inflation report showed a marginal increase in overall cost of living which helped fuel a short term run above 0.88 before retracting on analysis of trimmed mean statistics that showed little change in overall price pressures. Stronger than expected U.S CPI data forced the Aussie lower still and added to resistance levels above 0.8820. Attentions now turn to RBA Governor Glenn Stevens as he hits the wires this morning with markets seeking any insight into future policy expectations, while Chinese Manufacturing PMI will be closely monitored with investors pursuing assurances the world’s second largest economy is not stagnating.   

• We expect a range today between 0.8725 – 0.8820

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar opens marginally lower this morning as stronger than expected US CPI inflation reports helped bolster Greenback strength and supported a Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rally. Investors seem reluctant to push the Kiwi outside recent ranges between 0.78 and 0.80 in the face of stagnating global growth. With investors keeping a close eye on CPI reports this morning to govern local direction attentions turn to Chinese and European Manufacturing PMI for offshore stimuli.

• We expect a range today of 0.7810 – 0.8020

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound weakened during trade on Wednesday as the Central Banks October meeting minute’s revealed pessimism within the MPC and concerns surrounding the overall state of the global economy. The Bank of England saw greater risks to the British economy emanating from a slump within the Eurozone and while two members chose to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points the majority opted to maintain the current accommodative stance. The insight into the Central Bank’s current dogma dampened market expectations of a near term rate increase and forced Sterling back below 1.61 and Cable opens this morning at 1.6046.    

• We expect a range today between 1.8220 – 1.8350

Majors:

The Greenback rallied to a one week high against the majority of it major currency peers on Wednesday as CPI reports showed an unexpected increase in the overall cost of living. The report helped ease concerns the world’s largest economy may be stagnating in the face of flat global growth and assisted in closing the gap between market and Federal Reserve rate expectations. In other news the Euro slid to a one week low as reports suggest 11 major Eurozone banks will fail this weekend’s stress tests thus increasing concerns surrounding the overall stability of the 18 nation bloc economy. Key manufacturing data due today is expected to show a contraction for the first time in over a year heaping more pressure on the ECB to increase stimulus measures. The contrasting economic outlooks and Central Bank policies leave the Euro ripe for another dramatic downward correction especially as current Euro shorts are spread relatively thin within the futures market. Attentions turn to Euro, French and German Manufacturing PMI this evening for further directional guidance.

Data releases

• AUD: RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
• NZD: CPI Q/Q
• JPY: Flash Manufacturing PMI
• GBP: MPC Member Broadbent Speaks, Retails Sales, BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
• EUR: French, German and Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI, French, German and Eurozone Flash Services PMI and Spanish Unemployment.
• USD: Unemployment Claims, HPI m/m and Flash Manufacturing PMI.