Daily Currency Market Report – 25th July 2014


The market in brief:
• AUD rally falters
• NZD tumbles even further
• Chinese Manufacturing improves
• Mixed French and German Manufacturing data
• UK Retail Sales disappoint
• US Weekly Unemployment Claims beat forecast by10%

Market moving events for the next 24 hours:
• NZ Business Confidence
• German Ifo Business Climate survey
• UK GDP
• US Durable Goods


AUDUSD:
The Australian Dollar has fallen back from its highs of yesterday as the market once again sees no reason for the currency to break out from the USD 3 cent range. The move came as US weekly Jobless Claims fell to multi year lows and beat expectations by 10%. US Durable Goods orders are due this evening and also expected to be strong. With the weekend coming we’d expect the currency to grind lower again; however it is not too late to get your currency hedging on board. SEE THE ATTACHED.

AUDEUR:
The Euro clawed back some lost ground overnight as importers took advantage of the highs and as German Manufacturing data improved. German Ifo Business Climate survey is due this evening and could possibly spark some further volatility before the week is out. We favour the recent highs acting as support going forward so a good target for exporters. Importers call us to place orders to take advantage of another push higher and to lock in cover for the medium term.

AUDGBP:
The Pound was the only major currency not to make any gains versus the Australian Dollar yesterday as UK Retail Sales came out at +0.1%, against expectations of +0.2%. UK GDP data will be of interest this evening and could well see Sterling play catch up with the other majors and pull the pair lower.

AUDNZD:
As per my comments on CNBC.com yesterday (Compass quoted on CNBC) the surprising comments from the RBNZ over the strength of the NZ Dollar has The Tasman Cross over 120 points higher and 360 points of the lows seen mid-month. As per our much discussed forecast, we are firmly in a medium term upward channel and sit NZD 1 cent below our target level.

Friday Funny: 'Do you really believe your husband when he tells you he goes fishing every weekend?' Asks Vicky's best friend, Myra. 'Why shouldn't I, Myra?' responds Vicky. 'Well, maybe he is having an affair?' comments Myra. 'No way,' laughs Vicky, 'he never comes home with any fish.'



Alternative Currency Hedging: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away if the rate improves or if not required.

Referrals: Client referrals are very important to our business. If you know of any contacts that can benefit from our comprehensive range of international currency transfer services, please do not hesitate to contact me. I’d be glad to assist. 

Jim Devonport

Corporate & High Net Worth Client Manager

 

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