Today's Highlights
Sterling overbought ahead of credit data
US growth slows faster than forecast
Canadian growth due, forecasts are mixed
FX Market Overview
Investors are nervous. Gold is at a 7 week high as the safety of its intrinsic value lures people away from equities and bonds and, with bond yields so low, that isn't so surprising. The nervousness stems from commodity prices bumping along the bottom of their range, a lack of economic growth anywhere and central banks that can't decide whether to raise, lower or leave interest rates alone. Most are opting for the latter course of action because to do anything else just attracts heaps of criticism.
So with that nervousness in mind, the slight recovery of the Pound makes a little sense. At 2.1% annual economic growth, the UK is in stellar form compared to other economies. The US data, released yesterday, showed America's growth missed the forecasts and fell to just 0.5% growth in the first 3 months of 2016, after growing at 1.4% in Q4. The US Dollar was weakened by the news. However, this afternoon's personal income and expenditure data is expected to be rather more upbeat, so this may well be an opportunity for US Dollar buyers to take advantage before noon.
For the UK, the risk of an exit from the European Union appears to have ebbed somewhat. London is a massive financial centre so it attracts investors and relative to other big cities around the world so UK property prices are still pretty affordable. This morning's credit and mortgage data will, I suspect, paint a picture of slowing activity even though the major forecasters are looking for minor increases. The Pound is holding its own but is heavily overbought from a technical perspective, so there is probably more scope for GBP weakness than strength in the short term.
This afternoon brings Canadian economic growth data and the forecast are very mixed. There is no doubt we will get volatility around those numbers, so if you buy or sell Canadian Dollars, an automated order may be just the tool you need today.
And in other news, anyone who rents a home now has a twitter voice to rant about the sky-high cost and the poor service from landlords. #VentYourRent is the hashtag for all this activity and some of the tweets are just plain disgusting whilst others are very funny indeed.
I hope you have a great long weekend. May Day holds all sorts of celebrations from armament parades to fetes and from anarchist processions to pole dancing from a more innocent age. Enjoy.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.