Today's Highlights
Sterling remains strong after unchanged GDP data
Greek exit is becoming a real possibility
USD awaits GDP revision
Canadian growth pick up expected
FX Market Overview
Yesterday was a little boring unless of course you are a member of FIFA. The lack of data left the markets free to ponder where next. There is an adage in the equities markets that says, 'sell in May and go away' but with the FTSE hovering just below its all-time highs, that doesn't appear to have happened. With Greece teetering on the brink of an exit from the euro and David Cameron being edged towards a UK exit from the EU, there is plenty to play for right now.
The bright spot in yesterday's news was the release of the 2nd estimate of economic growth in the UK for the first three months of this year. In the end the data was unchanged but there are many who believe it will be higher for Q2 but the first estimate of that will come on 28th July. For the time being, Sterling remains relatively strong against all but the advancing US Dollar.
And speaking of the US, this afternoon brings the 2nd estimate of US economic growth for Q1 and that figure is likely to be pretty poor. So perhaps the unassailable USD will finally give up some of its gains in the hours ahead. However, we are expecting both the manufacturing and consumer indices - also due for release this afternoon - to be rather more encouraging. The strange disparity between actual economic data and the perception amongst consumers and businesses is still causing scratched heads amongst economists all over the word and the US is a prime example.
The Canadian GDP data is also due for release this afternoon and it should mirror the rather upbeat message we got from the Bank of Canada this week. To be fair, anything above last month's zero growth figure would be greeted with a bit of CAD buying. So if you are a buyer of Canadian Dollars, you may want to pre-empt that 12.30GMT release.
It should also be noted that this is the last working day of the month. I know you know that but it is worth reiterating because traders may choose to take profit on their recent trades and that would cause a degree of retracement. Beware of unexpected forex adjustments.
And today, I am reliable informed, is National Biscuit Day. To mark the event, McVities has surveyed its customers and, amongst other things, they have reported that who prefer Milk Chocolate Digestives like beach holidays in Spain, watch Coronation Street, boast of their kindness and would most like to go for a drink with David Beckham. Hobnob lovers have the best sense of humour. Shy people, they claim, prefer Rich Tea biscuits. I think Rich Tea eaters are the scientists amongst us though because assessing the nanosecond between dunk and drop with a Rich Tea is a very precise affair. Rich Tea dunkers, I salute you although it would appear you are probably too shy to accept the compliment.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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