UK GDP the early focus

Today's Highlights

UK GDP the early focus

German CPI expected to rebound

FX Market Overview

FIFA have finally shown some bite and correctly decided to ban Luis Suarez for 9 international matches and 4 months in total. He's banned from even entering a football stadium and all "football related activity". Does that mean Fussball is off limits too? What about Subutteo? It's been a fantastic competition so far and I hope this one sour incident doesn't overshadow what has been a brilliant advert for the beautiful game.

On the data front there was very little for us to get our teeth into yesterday in a fairly quiet and range bound day. French consumer confidence increased to 86 in June which was slightly better than the consensus. This was said to be down to improvements in personal finance and living standards but I think it could have been national pride in their football team who are uncharacteristically united and easily qualified through to the knockout stages.

Over in the United States St Luis Fed President Bullard played down the importance of the appalling Q1 GDP figures arguing that it was old news and did not tally with other more recent macro data. He added that businesses were confident , inflation was turning higher and that job growth had improved since the Fed began QE3 and that the first rate hike should be before the end of 2015. Strong consumer spending last month was cited as a reason not to worry about poor growth on Q1 so the negative revisions yesterday will be a tad concerning for US policy makers despite what Mr Bullard thinks. The dollar weakened on the news and looks set to continue in that fashion with little of note due to be released today.

Today the main focus will be on the final release of Q1 GDP from the UK. It is unlikely that the previous figure will be revised significantly at this stage. Most are expecting a slight upgrade to 0.9% on the quarter or 3.2% annually. If this is proved correct then Sterling should remain supported into the weekend. In the Eurozone we await inflation data from Germany and this will be very closely watched ahead of the Eurozone wide CPI estimate next week. German inflation surprised to the downside last month . A rebound to 1% is expected but if it disappoints again the Euro could come under significant selling pressure.