Kiwi gaps lower despite RBNZ rate hike overnight

United States Dollar:

The pound dropped yesterday after the Bank of England minutes showed that MPC members voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at their last meeting. The Committee also said that they had no pre-set view on the timing for a rate rise and it will depend on data. There was also an acknowledgement that earnings data was weak in relation to the stronger employment data, indicating that labour market slack may be increasing. Expectations for a rate hike are now being pushed back to Q1 2015. With this, GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.7025 yesterday and although there is good support at 1.70 the pair has failed to make any kind of a recovery overnight. If retail sales print weaker than expected this morning it might be enough to force cable back under this big figure. Meanwhile, there’s been little by way of data from the U.S. over the last 24 hours. `

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6960 to 1.7125

Euro:

EUR/USD fell steadily during European business hours yesterday. It slipped to a low of 1.3438 this morning but has since bounced following the positive run of PMI data from France, Germany and Europe as a whole. All manufacturing and service indices printed stronger than expected, except for French flash manufacturing PMI which printed a little weaker than forecasts. EUR/USD has rallied back towards 1.35 and opens this morning at 1.3475. GBP/EUR is also falling in reaction to the strong European data and after flirting with a break of 1.27 yesterday morning it has come back off to open the London session at 1.2650.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2600 to 1.2700

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:

As expected, the RBNZ hiked interest rates overnight by 0.25% to 3.5%. The kiwi gapped lower on the news though and dropped from .8705 to a .8605. It was the accompanying statement that knocked it as Governor Wheeler said that the central bank needs time to assess the impact of its most recent rises with December being talked about as the next time the RBNZ will lift its OCR. NZD/USD has fallen lower since too and opens in London at .8585. AUD/USD has taken a back seat as the focus down-under was directed across the Tasman. It trades at .9445 currently.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7950 to 1.8120

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9780 to 1.9920

Data Releases for the next 24 hours:

AUD: No data

EUR: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Italian Retail Sales m/m

GBP: Retail Sales m/m

NZD: ANZ Business Confidence

USD: Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales