Base Metals Lost Value

Gold Remains Flat

Gold was down 20 cents on Comex to $1,209.90 for April delivery. Trading largely unchanged for the whole week, gold price was sitting flat since the sharp Dollar appreciation, which climbed to a more than four– week high against the Euro. In Europe, bullion was traded at 1,080 euros per ounce. German import prices fell 0.8%, whereas French consumer spending beat the –0.3% forecast by 0.6%. The German prelim CPI is set for release. Meanwhile, US inflation rate slid into negative territory for the first time since 2009 in January and GDP grew at 2.2%, down from the estimated 2.6% growth pace last month, but above the 2.1% forecast. The US consumer sentiment will be released later.

Silver for May delivery were down 12.9 cents and traded at a price of $16.495 per ounce on Comex Friday. Metal for May delivery slid 0.11% to $16.608 per troy ounce. Silver for immediate delivery gained 6 cents or 0.36%, trading at $16.58. The metal is heading toward a 2.2% gain on a weekly basis, following the month of February’s drop to 3.5%. During the week, all precious metals were strongly influenced by speculation from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

Palladium contract was down $2.65 per ounce, trading at $808.40 per ounce. However, palladium, along with other precious metals, seem to be recovering from its recent weakness.

Platinum futures for April delivery were up $2.30 at $1,175.90 per ounce on Nymex. Meanwhile, according to Impala Platinun in South Africa, prices for the white metal are actually expected to remain lower for a longer period of time amid market oversupply.

Base Metals Lost Value

Aluminum premiums declined further on Friday 27 since the market participants were hesitant on future performance. Inventories fell another 7.725 tonnes in LME on Friday to 3,946,650 tonnes with prices remaining around $1,800. The further outlook is little certain and since more and more metal is being delivered out of warehouses it is unlikely to improve. It is becoming less profitable than ever before to hold the metal in warehouse as the premium level does not meet the storage cost.

Copper price was generally steady on Friday after Japan reported good industrial output but some downbeat data on retail dales, jobs and inflation data. Japanese Core CPI rose 2.2%, below the expected 2.3% annual for January. Copper was trading at the highest price since January 12 as the Bank of China cut interest rate for lending. While the economic growth in China is expected to slow in 2015, copper price is forecasted to appreciate to $7.200 per tonne amid some other economic factors by the end– 2015.

Nickel was down $210 at $14,170 after stocks added 1,080 tonnes up to 428,676 tonnes on Friday February 27.

Zinc dropped $11 to $14,170 after metal supplies declined 1,675 tonnes to 567,350 cancelled warrants lost 3,375 tonnes to 169,975 tonnes.

Natural Gas Prices Rally Amid Cold Weather Forecasts

Crude oil prices were very volatile during the whole week ended 27 February with its daily ups and downs. US crude oil were down slightly in value. The US treasury yield for 10 years fell 1,93% on Thursday. However, the losses did not extend on Friday as oil gained 2,0% again. Brent crude oil prices rose around 15%- the biggest month- on- month gain since May 2009– to about $61 per barrel from $53 in January. Prices for US crude oil experienced a modest 1,3% monthly gain, trading at $49. For the week, oil futures sank $2,69 or 5,33% on New York trading, the first loss in four weeks. Total US crude stock stood at 425,6 mil. Barrels, reaching the most in 80 years. Despite the losses, Brent crude oil added more than 11% in February on London trading since some investors bet that a seven– month long round is over and the bottom has been reached. Brent for April delivery eased 0,02% or 1 cent, to settle the week at $60,22 per barrel on Friday close.

Natural gas futures added more than 4% on Friday, hitting a four– week high amid forecasts of freezing weather across US. Natural gas for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 11,7 cents, or 4,13%, settling at $2,951 per mBtu on Friday. Futures found a support at $2,772 per mBtu, the February 19 low. The resistance level was situated at $3,009, the January 22 high. On Nymex, natural gas prices climbed 13,3 cents, or 5,24% during the week, following a second consecutive weekly gain.

Heating oil for delivery in March gained 7,12% during the week, settling at $2,111 per gallon by Friday close.

US Department of Agriculture Surprises the Market

Wheat global production for 2014/2015 continue to increase. Output is forecasted to appreciate 1,7 million tons to 725,0 million, the historical high. In US, sales and shipments of wheat are slow, with support for 0,5– million ton reduction, down to 25,0 million. US imports declined 0,5 million tons to 4,2 million in February, to 4,2 million. US wheat futures declined more than 3% on Friday, hitting the lowest in two weeks level. On Chicago Mercantile Exchange, US wheat sank 3,32%, or 17,4 cents, for delivery in March. March wheat contract declined 4,38%, or 24,55 cents, after Egypt declined to purchase US wheat. Overall, wheat has been under heavy pressure amid oversupply and reduced demand for US.

Soybean for March delivery declined 8,0 cents, or 0,79%, on Friday to trade at $9,992 per bushel. After the surprise from the US Department of Agriculture by forecasting a fall in the 2015– 2016 soybean plantings, prices hit the most since January 15 on Thursday, trading at $10,1700. Soybean contract price rose 6,82 cents, 0,98% for March, the third weekly gain. The current Brazilian strike among truck drivers on high fuel prices continued for the ninth consecutive day on Thursday, threating crop exports.

Corn slumped 1,15%, or 4,4 cents, for March delivery, closing at $3,8520 per bushel amid wheat losses that weighet on prices. Both wheat and corn sre linked because they can me used as animal feed. March corn futures contract were down 0,64%, or 1,92 cents, continuing two straight weekly gains.

EXPLANATIONS

Commodities

• Gold - COMEX active contracted (USD/t o.z.)

• Silver - COMEX active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Platinum - New York Mercantile Exchange active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Palladium - New York Mercantile Exchange active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Aluminum - Active contract of primary aluminum of minimum 99.2% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Copper - Active contact of electrolytic copper at the LME (USD/MT)

• Zinc - Active contract of zinc od minimum 99.995% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Nickel - Active contract of nickel of 99.8% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/bbl.)

• Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the ICE Futures Europe (USD/bbl.)

• Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/MMBtu)

• Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/gal.)

• Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

• Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

• Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange

• Soybeans - active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

Indices

• S&P GSCI Precious Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc

• S&P GSCI Energy Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, Brent oil, RBOB gas, heating oil, gas oil and natural gas

• S&P GSCI Agriculture Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on wheat, red wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, coffee and cocoa

Indicators

Long-term price forecasts - aggregated price forecasts based on predictions of 20 international banks forecasts

USDA Wasde Total Estimated Inventories (Today) - current level of inventories of wheat in 1000 MT, corn in 1000 MT, soybeans in million bushels and green coffee in 1000 bags