Robusta Coffee Could Decline in Value

Gold Lost Some Value

Gold lost some value on Friday, moving from the five month high position after the ECB announcement on Thursday that they are launching the QE program. The €60 billion monthly bond buying program will be started in March and last until September 2016, in order to minimize the threat of deflation in the euro area and boost economic growth. Gold futures for February delivery traded $1,295 on Comex, down 0.44%. Meanwhile, China’s, world's biggest physical gold consumer, HSBC Flash PMI came in at 49.8 in January, compared to December's final of 49.6, while the January output ticked up to 50.1 from 49.9 in December, entering the expansion territory above 50.

Silver futures for March delivery lost 0.21%, or 3.8 cents, and traded at $17.71 per troy ounce on Comex in the beginning of last week. However, in the middle of that week silver futures for March delivery edged up 1.77%, or 31.7 cents, and settled at $18.27 per troy ounce, also on Comex. Ultimately, at week’s end March futures ended up losing 0.16% to $18.32 per troy ounce.

Palladium rose 0.4% to $761 per ounce last Monday, whereas palladium futures for March delivery edged up 3.2% and settled at $778.75 per troy ounce on Wednesday last week.

Platinum slumped against the gold on Monday last week due to SNB removing the cap on Franc. Platinum lost 0.3% and traded at $1,263.21 per ounce, while futures for March delivery rose 1.4% in mid-week and settled at $1,286.60 per troy ounce.

Zinc and Aluminum Prices Appreciated

Aluminum prices increased in the beginning of the previous week by $27 to $1,825 thousand per tonne. On Wednesday aluminum futures for April delivery slightly dropped, by 0.5%, to $2,066 thousand per tonne on LME, while on HKex futures settled at $2,072 thousand per tonne.

Copper added 0.14% to $2.580 for March deliveries during the Monday sessions, but instantly slid down the next day by 4.9% to $2.568 per pound after Chinese GDP report. In the middle of the week futures for March delivery lost 4.2 cents and traded at $2.552 per pound on Comex. Last Thursday copper prices declined amid traders anticipating the ECB meeting, with futures for March delivery losing 0.96%, or 2.5 cents, and settling at $2.587 per pound. At the end of the week futures for March delivery slid again due to China PMI data release, slumping 0.98% and trading at $2.565 per pound on Comex.

Nickel futures for April delivery slumped 2.1% in the beginning of last week and settled at $14.475 per ton on the LME. Nickel imports by the world’s largest consumer, China, dropped to the lowest at the end of last week amid Indonesian ban on unprocessed minerals. Futures for April delivery slid 0.7% to $14,745 per ton on the LME.

Zinc rose for two days last week before the data on housing construction was released in the US and the ECB stimulus decision was announced. Overall, zinc added the highest of 0.8% during last week, whereas futures for April delivery gained 0.6% to $2,112 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Brent and WTI Oil Rallies

Crude oil prices surged in Asia on Friday after the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, adding some uncertainty to the market. Bren oil futures added $1.18 per barrel and traded at $49.70 per barrel during the Friday earlier session. Brent ranged between $47.78 and $50.45 per barrel during the reported week. The booming US shale production has turned the US from the largest Global oil importer to the top producer with pumping output over 9 mil. barrels/day. Meanwhile, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for March delivery lost 1.34% to trade at $48.38 a barrel on Thursday. To deal with the rising output and falling prices, such oil exporters as Venezuela, asked the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut output to support oil prices and revenues. However, in respect by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced in November to keep the output at 30 mil. barrels/day. Yet, led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced last November it would keep output steady at 30 million barrels per day.

Natural gas futures slid 5% on Thursday, after the U.S. data showed natural gas supplies declined less than expected last week. The gas storage in the U.S. fell by 216 billion cubic feet in the week ended January 16, whereas the forecast was a decline of 227 billion.

Heating oil inched down about 0.01% for February delivery to trade at $1.646 per gallon.

Robusta Coffee Could Decline in Value

Wheat advanced 0.45%, or 2.42 cents, trading at $5.3963 per bushel. The wheat contract for March dipped 0.05%, or 0.2 cents, ending at $5.3660 on Wednesday. Lately, wheat has been under a heavy selling pressure during the recent weeks since the rising global supplies and indications of cut demand for U.S. wheat.

Corn performed as the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, according to some government figures. US corn for March delivery hiked 0.25%, or 0.97 cents, trading at $3.8938 per bushel. The prices were seen declining 0.58%, or 2.2 cents, on Wednesday, closing at $3.8800, after hitting a session high of $3.9240, the January 13 high, as investors were booking profits amid indications of growing global supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on January 12 that the U.S. harvest totaled 14.216 bil. bushels for 2014 on yields of 171 bushels an acre, the record highs.

Soybean futures appreciated for the second consecutive session on Thursday. US soybeans for March delivery added 3.67, trading at $9.8788 per bushel during the Thursday morning session. Generally, investors were seen returning to the market to seek cheap valuations because of recent losses which took prices to the lowest three-month level.

Coffee harvest of robusta bean was expected to experience the first decline in four– year, 3.6% year-on-year, and end up at 57.51m bags for 2015, as ICO reported last week. However, Colombian milds output, another type of arabica bean, was seen rising by 3.2% to 13.94m bags amid more trees maturing.

EXPLANATIONS

Commodities

• Gold - COMEX active contracted (USD/t o.z.)

• Silver - COMEX active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Platinum - New York Mercantile Exchange active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Palladium - New York Mercantile Exchange active contract (USD/t o.z.)

• Aluminum - Active contract of primary aluminum of minimum 99.2% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Copper - Active contact of electrolytic copper at the LME (USD/MT)

• Zinc - Active contract of zinc od minimum 99.995% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Nickel - Active contract of nickel of 99.8% purity at the LME (USD/MT)

• Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/bbl.)

• Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the ICE Futures Europe (USD/bbl.)

• Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/MMBtu)

• Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (USD/gal.)

• Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

• Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

• Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange

• Soybeans - active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (cents/bu)

Indices

• S&P GSCI Precious Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zin

• S&P GSCI Energy Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, Brent oil, RBOB gas, heating oil, gas oil and natural gas

• S&P GSCI Agriculture Total Return Index - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on wheat, red wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, coffee and cocoa

Indicators

Long-term price forecasts-aggregated price forecasts based on predictions of 20 international banks forecasts

USDA Wasde Total Estimated Inventories (Today)-current level of inventories of wheat in 1000 MT, corn in 1000 MT, soybeans in million bushels and green coffee in 1000 bags