Precious metals rose on Monday, being supported by broadly weaker greenback and speculation that the Fed will not tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy. However, dismal data from the Eurozone limited losses of the US Dollar thus capping gains of the commodity group. Meanwhile, market players continued to wait for the FOMC statement due on Wednesday.

Gold climbed 0.53% amid mounting hopes for continuation of easing measures in the US. Weaker US Dollar and expectations for better physical demand in India also pushed the yellow metal higher.

Silver advanced on stronger global equities and weaker US Dollar. The grey metal also found support on firmness of the precious metal group.

Platinum was the top-gainer on expected deficit on the market this year due to strikes in South Africa. Softer greenback as well as US stimulus hopes also lifted the white metal.

Palladium was bullish on brighter demand perspectives as loose monetary policy in the US may boost car sales in the country.


Industrial Metals: Nickel surged on signs of stronger demand

Base metals rallied on Monday on rising hopes that the Fed will keep its monetary policy loose as the US economy has not strengthened enough yet. However, dismal economic data releases from the Eurozone and Japan restricted an upward trend of industrial metals. Meanwhile, elevated inventory levels at LME-monitored warehouses also weighed on the commodity group.

Aluminum surged on better demand outlook in the US due to expected continuation of easing in the country. However, the upswing remained capped as China’s aluminum consumption grew by 5% less than a year earlier in the period between January and September.

Copper jumped on speculation that the Fed will stick to its monetary policy. At the same time, high inventories at LME limited gains of the red metal.

Nickel soared for the second consecutive session amid a sharp increase in canceled warrants ratio at LME and hopes for easing in the US.

Zinc climbed on better physical demand. However, bloated stockpiles at LME continued to weight on the metal.


Energy: Natural gas tanks on warm weather forecasts

Energy futures except for Brent oil retreated on Monday despite broadly weaker US Dollar and hopes that the Fed will keep its policy easy. The commodity group faced a heavy downward pressure from negative news from the Eurozone. Italy’s PM Mario Monti unexpectedly announced his resignation, raising uncertainty over the country’s leadership.

Crude oil fell amid fears that global demand may weaken amid Eurozone’s debt woes. However, recent declines in the US crude oil stockpiles as well as hopes that the Fed will provide further easing limited losses of the commodity.

Brent oil was the only gainer on signs that China’s economy is on the way to recovery and is likely to demand more energy to support growth.

Natural gas dipped further after the Commodity Weather Group reported much warmer weather in the next six-to 10 days in the most US territory.

Heating oil eased 0.66% as updated weather forecasts in the US suggested warm weather in the coming days, weighting on heating fuel demand prospects.


Agriculture: Sugar drops on bright outlook on Australian crops

Rural commodities moved lower on Monday despite softer greenback. Grains came under selling pressure in wake of slowing demand for US supplies while softs extended the decline amid global oversupply concerns.

Wheat attained three-week low on signs that demand for US grains is weakening. Iraq bought 350,000 metric tonnes from Australia and Romania, shunning US wheat. Meanwhile, US exports dived by annualized 12% in the period between June 1 and November 29.

Corn tumbled to three-week low amid slowing demand for US supplies. As for November 29, sales of US corn for delivery before August 31 were 46% lower than a year earlier.

Sugar plummeted as Australia maintained its sugar crop estimate at 4.5 million metric tonnes for the year that started July 1. The country’s crop rebounded due to larger planting area and higher sugar yields.

Coffee plunged on worries that supply will outplace demand in the next season due to rising Brazil’s production. Brazil coffee output may climb by annualized 2.2% next season despite low-yielding cycle.


EXPLANATIONS

Commodities

  • Gold - spot 995 fine gold

  • Silver - spot 999 fine silver

  • Platinum - spot platinum with minimum purity 99.95%

  • Palladium - spot palladium with minimum purity 99.95%

  • Aluminium - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange

  • Copper - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange

  • Zinc - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange

  • Nickel- three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange

  • Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

  • Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

  • Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

  • Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange

  • Sugar - white sugar wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

  • Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

  • Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange

  • Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade

Indices

  • Dow Jones-UBS Precious Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement

  • Dow Jones-UBS Industry Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

  • Dow Jones-UBS Energy Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

  • Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions

Chart

  • SMA (20) - Simple Moving Average of 20 periods

  • SMA (60) - Simple Moving Average of 60 periods

  • Correlation - a statistical measure of the linear relationship of two random variables. It is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of two variables

Indicators

Daily Ranked Price Moves - daily price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes

Monthly Ranked Price Moves - monthly price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes