Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to our second last Daily FX Report in this week. Today, the market is eagerly awaiting the latest data of the U.S. economy, especially, the labor market figures.
But anyways, we wish you a successful start into a new trading day.
Market Review – Fundamental Perspective
The downward pressure on the EUR continued as today releasing data may show that European services and manufacturing will shrink according to the estimates of many economists. Also the concerns grew that the still not finished region’s debt crisis will weak the economy further. The euro-zone composite index was forecasted by Bloomberg to increase slightly to 46.6 in September from 46.3 in August, but all figures below 50 are still signifying recession. Furthermore, Spain is set to sell another tranche of 3- and 10-year bonds today. Recently, the borrowing costs for securities with a 10-year maturity declined to 5.7 percent from 7.75 percent, the European record on the 25th of July. The decreasing yielding are the result of the latest announcements by the ECB to keep an unlimited bond-purchasing program to drop the costs down and to reduce the pressure of the debt-burden nations like Spain, Italy, Greek or Cyprus. In a statement expressed Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister this week that the nation will demand for the help of the European rescue fund if the lending conditions are agreed to the satisfaction of both sides. This could be a sign that Spain’s government has reached its limit.
In addition, there are still many strategists who are awaiting an expansion of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan at the end of their two-day meeting. Nevertheless, the general opinion is that this would only be a small step in supporting economic growth in the view of its current political tensions with China, which could affect their export figures as well. But also China’s business cooled much more than expected showed by the yesterdays released manufacturing data, which decreased continuously since November 2011 and weigh on the outlooks of the South Pacific nations. China is the biggest trading partner for nearly all of the region’s countries. In spite of the below facts, the JPY showed the best performance yesterday and enforced against almost all of its counterparts. The JPY gained 0.3 percent to 101.98 versus the EUR and climbed to 78.33 against the USD. The USD was at 1.3019 towards the EUR, establishing a 0.2 percent loss.
Daily Technical Analysis - Our Focus Currencies for Today
AUD/USD (4 Hours)
From its low around 1.0173 on the 5th of September, the AUD/USD had been growing inside a bullish Andrew’s pitchfork to the resistance level around 1.0611, where a first test failed and spurred the bears. Recently, the rate pulled back from the support level around 1.0424 by approaching its bearish trend line. In addition, the pair is set to build a shoulder-head-shoulder formation. This formation as well as the other indicators is providing us with bearish signs, why further losses are likely as soon as the rate breaks through the current support.
Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)