Market Analysis
At this point, the actual market activity has been mostly in line with the cycle projections. Below, we see that the daily S&P has traced out a rising wedge from which it has begun to break down. A divergence between price and momentum can be detected. But the cycles still point up, so there has been little follow through on the downside.
The daily S&P surpassed both the critical 38% and 50% retracement levels. Price sits just above the ‘last stop’ 78.6% and 81% retracement levels. A run at the old highs is likely by mid-month.
Daily S&P 500
Below are weekly and monthly oscillators of advances less declines. Both are overbought.
Weekly NYSE Advances Less Declines (10-Period M.A.)
Monthly NYSE Advances Less Declines (10-Period M.A.)
The weekly chart is now overbought.
Weekly S&P 500
The monthly graph shows that the decline has hit the 23.6% retracement levels of 1 prior rally and the 38.2% retracement of another rally. The longer-term support and the projected lows are in the 1550-1600 range by the autumn.
This is an excerpt from the monthly Cycles Research Early Warning Service, a monthly e-mail report that analyzes the trends in the US stock market, the bond market, and the gold market. There are stock and ETF recommendations and high-probability S&P turning points.
Cycles Research Investments, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 on Thursday and remains on track to end the day in negative territory following upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US. The action in financial markets turn subdued as trading volumes thin out heading into Easter holiday.
GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.