The end of the week is upon us and it has been a difficult week to trade. The majors have twisted and shouted but have not produced much in the way of a trend or follow thru on even inter day movement. Many of the majors heading into the end of the week are sitting at significant support and resistance levels. The USDJPY is testing the bottom of its weekly range and the AUDUSD is trying to bounce of the 50 Fib. These moves have the possibility to gather steam into the end of the week. Everyone have a great weekend and as always keep your trades KEANE.
EURUSD WALKING ON THE EDGE
On Thursday the EURUSD traded in a modest 66 pip range. ECB rate decision and press conference that followed failed to spark the interest of traders. The ECB left rates unchanged and Draghi made no mention of Germany in the presser that followed. The EURUSD did manage to make a lower low but finished the day above the .382 fib at 1.2734.
Heading into the end of the week and next week, it still remains to be seen if the pair can find any traction at the .382 fib at 1.2734. To make a run from these levels risk trends will need to pop higher. A hold of the 1.2750/35 level first obstacle would be the 200 day MVA just above at 1.2820. A break of that level would expose daily price support at 1.2885. If the pair breaks below the .382 fib a push lower towards the 50 fib at 1.2602 could play out into the new week.
Sup 1.2750/35 1.2602(5o Fib)
Res 1.2820 1.2885
Keane Plan….Right now it is all about a hold or break of the 1.2750/35 Support zone…Playing the Price action from there.
GBPUSD POPS AFTER BOE
The GBPUSD popped higher in early New York trading after the BoE remained sidelined at kept interest rates at current levels. The pair could not manage to break above the .382 fib level at 1.60. That level is now short term resistance followed by 1.6040. It will take a break of these levels to open the cross up to a push towards the larger range top at 1.6140.
A push lower would have to break below daily price support at 1.5930. Just below this level lays the 50 Fib from the move higher to 1.63 at 1.5903. A move to this level could find buyers in the short-run.
Sup 1.5930 1.5903 (50 Fib)
Res 1.5999 (.382 Fib) 1.6040
Keane Plan….Looking for a break of 1.6040 or a push down towards the 50 fib at 1.5903.
AUDUSD I THINK I CAN, NO I CANT
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher in North American trading but could not find it’s balance above the 1.0410/1.0386 support zone. The pair is now firmly back in the support zone and a break out in one direction or the other appears to be on the horizon. A push to the topside exposes resistance between 1.05/0520. A break below the 50 fib at 1.0386 opens the pair up to a test of the ascending trend line at 1.0350 followed by daily support at 1.0250.
Sup 1.0410/1.0386 1.0350 1.0250
Keane Plan….The pair is consolidating. Waiting for a break of the 50 fib at 1.0386 or another run above 1.0440.
NZDUSD CHECKING OUT THE BOTTOM OF THE RANGE
The NZDUSD continued its push lower on Thursday and is now resting near the bottom of its current range at .8110. The cross does have daily support at .8150. So the .8150/.8110 area could act as a nice support zone. Any bounce at this level could once again move up to test the top of the range between .83/.8350.
If the cross manages to break below the bottom of the resistance zone support begins once again at .80. The pair has traded lower ever since disappointing employment results pointed the pair lower. At this point the cross could be oversold. But a push down in risk most likely would take the cross with it.
Sup .8150/.8110 .80
Keane Plan....Sitting on the support zone between .8150/.8110. Will be watching for a break or hold of this level.
USDCAD ON THE WAY TO THE 50 FIB?
The USDCAD is once again flirting with parity. These two have made for difficult bed fellows as of late. If the cross manages to gather momentum higher the 50 fib rest just above at 1.0040. This level could and most likely will be a difficult egg to crack. Support now begins at .9885
Res 1.00 1.0040 ( 50 Fib)
USDJPY TESTING THE BOTTOM OG THE RANGE
Throughout the week the USDJPY has managed to crawl lower to test the bottom of its current range between 81/80.60 and 79.50/79.25. The move appears to be related to safe haven flows due to the fiscal Cliff issues facing the USA. A break of the bottom of the range could open the pair up to a move towards 78.90.
Keane Plan….Price action will tell the story in the support zone between 79.40/25