EUR/USD: FED's officers underpinned the greenback

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1244

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The American dollar end marginally higher the first trading day of the week, underpinned by comments from FED's Williams and Lockhart, both leaving the door open for a hike in April, despite  the meeting does not come with a press conference or economic projections. After the US Federal Reserve offered a dovish surprise last week, investors were pricing in quite a  limited possibility for a June rate hike, with most expecting no action until September. The greenback's bearish case developed after the latest FOMC meeting, with the currency plummeting to multi-month lows across the board, and despite latest wording from policy makers, a reversal is far from confirmed.

Early Monday, the EU released its latest current account data, which resulted below market's expectations, by printing a surplus of €25.4B, down from a previously revised €28.6B. In the US, housing data disappointed as Existing Home sales plummeted 7.1% in February, down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08M. 

The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1233, and remained nearby by the end of the US session, having met selling interest on approaches to the 1.1285 level, ever since the day started. The lack of volume has left intraday technical readings with no actual momentum, but generally speaking, the downside is now favored, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price has been driven lower by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators remain below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended below a bearish 20 SMA during the US session, while the RSI indicator heads south around 52 and the Momentum turned horizontal after a strong break below its 100 line, supporting a test of the 1.1200 figure and even a break below it for this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1285 1.1310 1.1340 

EUR/JPY Current price: 125.73

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The Japanese yen had a mute day across the board, as Japanese markets were closed this Monday on a local holiday.  The currency, however, was under some limited pressure amid dollar's strength, but the common currency lost its latest charm, resulting in a flat EUR/JPY. The pair ends the day with a doji, barely 10 pips above its Friday's close, and with a neutral short term technical stance, as in the 1 hour chart, the price remains below its 100  and 200 SMAs, both converging around 125.80, while the technical indicators stand pat above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the 200 SMA continued capping the upside, as the pair remains unable to extend beyond it, while the technical indicators hover around their mid-lines, lacking clear directional strength. Should the Nikkei track Wall Street's gains, the JPY may weaken further, but EUR gains will likely remain limited in a risk-appetite environment.  At this point, a strong advance through 126.50 is required to confirm a steeper advance that can extend up to the 127.00/30 price zone. 

Support levels: 125.40 125.00 124.60

Resistance levels: 126.10 126.50 126.90

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4395

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The GBP/USD pair returned below a major Fibonacci level, the 61.8% retracement of this year's decline, on the back of dollar's strength, having failed to rally beyond it for two straight days. Fears of a Brexit are still a factor of longer-term pressure for the local currency, but this retracement at the beginning of the week, may well be blamed to profit taking ahead of key macroeconomic releases in the UK this Tuesday, including inflation figures for last February. The market is expecting to see  a rise in the headline CPI from 0.3% to 0.4% while the core reading is projected to hold steady at 1.2%. Producer input prices are expected to post a limited bounce also, but to remain mostly within negative territory. Better-than-expected figures may help the Sterling, but at this point, a steady advance beyond 1.4500 is required to confirm a continued advance. In the meantime, the short term technical picture is bearish, as in the 1 hour chart, the price develops below a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned flat within negative territory, having corrected from near oversold levels. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head lower, with the Momentum indicator almost vertically, whilst the price remains stuck around a bullish 20 SMA, all of which is not enough to confirm a  bearish breakout. 

Support levels: 1.4365 1.4325 1.4280

Resistance levels: 1.4410 1.4445 1.4490

USD/JPY Current price: 111.78

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The USD/JPY pair gained a firmer tone in the American afternoon, finding support in rising stocks, albeit the intraday rally was limited and the pair remains below the critical 112.00 level, the highest post after bottoming at 110.66 last week. With Japanese markets closed due to a local holiday, the JPY saw little action during the first half of the day, with the pair stuck to the 111.45 area, lately  ignoring poor macro data coming from the US.  Japan will release its Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for March during the upcoming Asian session, expected at 50.6 from previous 50.1 and a reading below expected should fuel the ongoing advance, not only because of the local economic weakening, but also on increasing hopes of further easing coming from the BOJ. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains below a bearish 100 SMA, currently at 112.10, while the technical indicators have lost upward strength after recovering positive ground. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator has turned south above the 100 level, while the RSI indicator heads higher around 46, all of which continues to limit the possibility of a stronger advance. 

Support levels: 111.60 111.30 111.00

Resistance levels: 112.10 112.45 112.90  

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7594

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The AUD/USD pair closed the day pretty much flat around the 0.7600 level, having been subject of commodities mood, down at the beginning of the day on oil's slide, but trimming losses as the black gold recovered ground. During the upcoming Asian session, RB Assist Governor Edey is due to participate in a panel discussion about risks related to central counter-parties at the Australian Securities & Investment Commission Annual Forum, and the market will be looking for clues on upcoming economic policies, while the country will release its Q4 House price index, expected down at 0.1% against previous 2.0%. Technically, Friday's pullback is far from suggesting the latest bullish trend is over, and seems more a correction, at it will take some continued decline below the 0.7500 level to worry bulls. Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a limited bullish tone, as the technical indicators are heading higher around their mid-lines, whilst the price is a couple of pips above a horizontal 20 SMA. Yet at the same time, is showing no bearish intentions around. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price is a handful of pips below a bullish 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator heads south below the 100 level, while the RSI hovers around 55, announcing the ongoing correction may continue before a new leg north. 

Support levels:  0.7565 0.7520 0.7470 

Resistance levels: 0.7630 0.7680 0.7720