EUR/USD Current price: 1.0934
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The ECB surprised investors this Thursday, by deciding to extend its asset purchase program until the end of March 2017 or beyond, but without expanding the amount of monthly purchases. Despite the Central Bank has also cut deposit rate by further 0.10%, leaving them at -0.30%, EUR bulls took over the FX board, as the announcements were quite short from markets' expectations. Stocks plummeted after the news and the EUR/USD pair skyrocketed after being as low as 1.0505 right after the release of the rates decision, adding over 400 pips intraday and finally meeting some selling interest around 1.0941. The American dollar was sold-off across the board, with the decline accelerating after the release of poor US services PMI figures for November, down to 55.9 from October reading of 59.1.
With the US Nonfarm Payroll release early Friday, is yet to be confirmed if EUR rally can be sustained in time, or if it's just the due correction after the pair lost over 1000 pips in the last two months. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price has surpassed the 38.2% retracement of such decline, now the immediate support at 1.0880. In the same chart, the technical indicators are losing upward strength in extreme overbought territory, yet considering the wide daily range, technical readings will need a couple of days to adjust before becoming useful again. Overall, the upcoming direction will depend on how the market understands the US employment report in relation to a possible December rate hike. The key support will be then 1.0835 with a break below it required to confirm a bearish movement in the last day of the week.
Support levels: 1.0880 1.0835 1.0790
Resistance levels: 1.0945 1.0990 1.1040
EUR/JPY Current price: 134.04
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The EUR/JPY pair surged up to 134.49 and holds above the 134.00 level by the end of the day, boosted by EUR demand following a poor offer from ECB's Draghi after all of the jawboning of these past two months. The European Central Bank has largely anticipated and extension of its facilities, and investors priced in a monthly increase of QE of €10-20bn, something that Draghi failed to deliver. The pair advanced in a day, what it lost in the previous 5-weeks, and maintains a strong upward tone, despite technical indicators are a bit distorted following the larger intraday rally. The price has stalled around its 100 DMA while the technical indicators in the same chart maintain a strong bullish tone, suggesting that a break above 134.50 will favor further advances. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have finally lost upward strength in extreme overbought levels, but are not yet suggesting a deeper corrective move. Below 134.00, the pair can decline down to 133.60, and it will take a break below this last level, to confirm further yen advances this Friday.
Support levels: 134.50 134.95 135.40
Resistance levels: 134.00 133.60 133.20
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5122
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The British Pound got an early boost against its majors rivals during the European morning, following the release of better-than-expected UK services PMI data for November that surged to 55.9 from a previous reading of 54.9. The GBP/USD pair however, remained contained by selling interest around the 1.4960 level, before finally breaking through it on dollar's sell-off. The pair recovered up to 1.5126 in the American afternoon, and holds nearby at the end of the day. Having advanced around 200 pips, some consolidation should be expected now ahead of the release of US employment data on Friday. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes after crossing above their mid-lines, whilst the price recovered well above its 20 SMA. The 200 EMA in the same chart, stands around 1.5190, being now the level to beat to confirm a more sustainable recovery in the mid-term.
Support levels: 1.5086 1.5050 1.5020
Resistance levels: 1.5125 1.5160 1.5190
USD/JPY Current price: 122.59
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The USD/JPY pair fell down to the 122.50 region in the US afternoon, posting a modest decline compared to other majors as the pair remains within its latest weeks' range. Poor services data in the US, alongside with a strong decline in worldwide stocks, helped the Japanese yen to gain some ground, but the pair is far from setting a clear directional strength. Intraday, the technical picture has turned bearish, as the technical indicators have crossed their mid-lines towards the downside and maintain their strong bearish slopes, whilst the price has extended below its 100 SMA. Nevertheless, the pair needs to break below 122.20, a strong static support level, to confirm additional declines, with the market pointing then for a probable test of the 121.35 level, another strong static support. If the US employment report, however, comes out better-than-expected, chances are towards the upside, with a recovery above 123.10 required to confirm an advance towards the recent highs in the 123.60 region.
Support levels: 122.20 121.70 121.35
Resistance levels: 123.10 123.60 124.00
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7340
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The AUD/USD pair recovered the ground lost last Wednesday and even established a fresh weekly high of 0.7349 this Thursday, having found some support in rising gold prices. There will be no relevant macroeconomic releases during the upcoming Asian session in Australia, which means that the pair will likely spend the session consolidating around the current level. From a technical perspective, the pair continued to find buying interest on dips, in line with the dominant bullish trend and is poised to extend its advance, given that the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have bounced from their mid-lines, and maintain strong bullish slopes, while the price held above a bullish 20 SMA. The pair has now a strong static resistance around 0.7380, and a weekly close above it should signal a continued advance beyond the 0.75 figure for the next week.
Support levels: 0.7280 0.7240 0.7200
Resistance levels: 0.7380 0.7410 0.7450
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