EUR/USD: weaker ahead of ECB's decision

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0610

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

The dollar cached a bid and soared to a fresh 7-month high against the common currency in the American afternoon, posting 1.0550 before bouncing back. Ever since the day started, the macroeconomic picture kept the pair under pressure, as poor inflation results in the EU for November boosted the case for further ECB easing this Thursday. According to the official release, inflation in the region rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, and 0.9% yearly basis, missing expectations and indicating deflationary pressures remain intact. In the US, the ADP survey showed that the private sector added 217K new jobs during November, anticipating a strong NFP report for the same month, whilst the unit labor cost surged to 1.8%. The start of the day was, however, the FED's chair, Janet Yellen, who spoke late in the US and affirmed that the economic and financial info has been consistent with their expectations of continued improvement, pretty much guaranteeing a rate hike this December. But at the same time she expressed concerns over long term inflation and added that "after the initial increase in the federal fund rate, monetary policy will remain accommodative."

The EUR/USD pair bounced from the mentioned low, and recovered up to the 1.0600 region, albeit its having a hard time to remain above it ahead of the US close. The pair has been trading in quite a limited range ever since the week started, ahead of the upcoming major events, and the technical picture is neutral-to-bearish, as the 4 hours chart shows that the price is struggling around a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are seeking for direction around their mid-lines. A break below 1.0550, with additional easing coming from the ECB, can open doors for a retest of the year low at 1.0460 this Thursday, with chances of fresh lows afterwards, should US employment data beat expectations. 

Support levels: 1.0550 1.0520 1.0490

Resistance levels:  1.0650 1.0690 1.0740

EUR/JPY Current price: 130.82

View Live Chart for the EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair surged up to 130.94 as the Japanese yen weakened on renewed hopes that the US Federal Reserve will act in its upcoming December meeting. The short term picture for the pair suggests that further gains are likely given that the price has met buyers around the 200 SMA in the hourly chart, whilst in the same chart, the 100 SMA aims higher below the larger one, while the technical indicators aim strongly higher above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are also heading north above their mid-lines, but the pair continues trading below a bearish 100 SMA. Despite these last days' recovery, the longer term outlook is still bearish, with renewed selling interest below 130.00 is required to confirm a new leg south towards fresh lows. 

Support levels: 130.40 130.00 129.65 

Resistance levels: 130.90 131.30 131.80

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4938

View Live Chart for the GPB/USD

The British Pound plunged to a fresh 8-month low against the greenback of 1.4893, initially affected by poor UK construction data, and later by stronger US one. Early Europe, the release of the November UK Construction PMI, showed that growth in the sector slowed, resulting at 55.3 against previous 58.8 and expectations of  a 58.2 advance. The figures sent the pair towards the 1.5000 psychological figure, broken later on the day amid a strong US ADP survey. Currently trading back above the 1.4900 level, the pair seems poised to correct some, but maintains a bearish tone, as according to the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators have turned higher in extreme oversold territory whilst the 20 SMA  heads lower far above the current level. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are turning higher in negative territory, but the risk remains towards the downside, whilst the 20 SMA has extended its decline above the current level, in line with a continued decline for this Thursday. 

Support levels: 1.4920 1.4885 1.4850 

Resistance levels: 1.4960 1.5000 1.5030 

USD/JPY Current price: 123.43

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The dollar rallied up to 123.66 against the Japanese yen, retreating, however, from the  fresh 2-week high before Wall Street's close. Dollar's rally after Yellen's comments was interrupted by news that the ECB may present its economic outlook with no major revisions this Thursday, although further stimulus is out of the question for now. The USD/JPY pair has been developing a more constructive outlook ever since the week started, although investors will likely wait until Friday's US employment figures to determinate where to go with the pair. Short term, the pair is set to correct lower as in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are heading south from extreme overbought levels, but the price is well above the 100 and 200 SMAs. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators turned lower, but remain in positive territory, whilst the price stands well above a flat 100 SMA, presenting a limited upward potential at the time being. 

Support levels: 122.60 122.20 121.70 

Resistance levels: 123.40 123.75 124.40 

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7307

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The  Australian dollar holds to its recent strength, despite having eased some against the greenback this Wednesday, as the AUD/USD pair holds above the 0.7300 figure by the end of the day. During the previous Asian session, Australia released its GDP data for the third quarter, which resulted in a 0.9% growth compared to a previously revised 0.3% and expectations of 0.8%. The short term picture is mild bearish, suggesting that the pair may correct lower before resuming its advance, as the price is holding below its 20 SMA while the technical indicators are heading lower around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are heading slightly lower from overbought territory, but the 20 SMA maintains a strong upward slope well below the current level. The pair can decline down to 0.7200 in a corrective movement  and recover afterwards, as only an extension below 0.7150 will confirm a bearish continuation during the upcoming sessions, quite unlikely at the time being. 

Support levels: 0.7280 0.7240 0.7200 

Resistance levels: 0.7335 0.7380 0.7410