EUR/USD Current price: 1.2841
Euro found some intraday support this Wednesday on weak US data, with ADP survey and non manufacturing PMI well below expectations; stocks fell strongly into the close Wednesday on rising worries over North Korea that approved nuclear attacks to the US, and comments of Fed Williams’ suggesting the Central Bank may start pulling back QE next summer. Above all this, the BOJ, the ECB and the BOE will announce their economic policy in the upcoming sessions, promising some interesting movements in the forex market.
As for the EUR/USD the pair has again stalled below the 1.2880 area despite the bullish short term tone, and trades ranging around 1.2840 with a more neutral stance in the hourly chart. BOJ around 03:30/05:30 GMT will be first, and if Japanese authorities are able to weaken the yen, the pair may get a boost from EUR/JPY demand, although market players will remain cautious ahead of ECB. Market expects the EU central bank to present a far more dovish stance than last month, when Cyprus was not part of the crisis history.
Technically speaking the pair remains bearish in the long ride, and recoveries are seen as selling opportunities, as high as 1.2950 this Thursday; on the other hand, a break below 1.2790 should anticipate a return of the bears with 1.2720 then at sight.
Support levels: 1.2820 1.2790 1.2750
Resistance levels: 1.2880 1.2910 1.2950
EUR/JPY Current price: 119.47
Japanese yen extended its advance, finding buyers again in the 119.00 area, although bounce has been quite shy afterwards. The hourly chart shows moving averages still heading lower well above current price, while indicators aim higher below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart the technical outlook is also bearish, although as usual a Central Bank decision can actually change a trend. The fact that it can it does not mean it will happen, but seems wiser to wait for the BOJ outcome. Key support level comes around 118.70, February 25th low, as a break below should lead to further yen gains with 115.50 then at sight.
Support levels: 119.10 118.70 118.20
Resistance levels: 120.00 120.45 120.90
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5132
The GBP/USD erased some of past Tuesday losses, although was unable to regain key 1.5170 level. Early Asia, the hourly chart shows price bouncing from a slightly bullish 20 SMA while indicators head south above their midlines, keeping the upside limited but denying a bearish acceleration. In the 4 hours chart technical readings hold a clear bearish tone that support a bearish continuation, although the BOE will also announce its economic policy today, key risk factor for the pair. Steady losses below 1.5090 however, should signal a downside acceleration, with 1.5050 and 1.5010 then as probable short term targets.
Support levels: 1.5090 1.5050 1.5010
Resistance levels: 1.5170 1.5220 1.5260
USD/JPY Current price: 93.06
Yen strength is also clear against the greenback, as the pair struggles to recover the 93.00 level after losing near 100 pips on increasing risk aversion. The hourly chart shows indicators correcting oversold readings, but 100 and 200 SMA’s continue to head south above current price, which supports further slides at least from the technical point of view. Besides BOJ today, US employment data next Friday is a major risk factor in the pair that can affect current trend. A light BOJ along with a disappointing NFP reading, may see the pair entering next week at fresh monthly lows.
Support levels: 92.80 92.45 92.10
Resistance levels: 93.50 93.85 94.20
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0457
Aussie rose back towards 1.0500 against the greenback, only to give up its gains during last American session. Short term bearish according to the hourly chart, the pair remains above the 1.0440 area, which stands as strong support. Australian Retail Sales to be published in a few hours and will add spice to the day: a negative reading there could put the pair under pressure with 1.0380/90 then at sight. Steady gains above 1.0510 are now required to see the bulls taking over the pair with scope then for a ride towards 1.0600 price zone.
Support levels: 1.0440 1.0390 1.0360
Resistance levels: 1.0510 1.0550 1.0600
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