EUR, AUD: risk remains to the downside

EUR/USD Current price: 1.3174

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Market starts the week pretty much where it closed on Friday, with dollar slightly up as concerns over no immediate solution over US fiscal cliff,  keeps the mood to the downside. And while the holiday season is about to start, concerns won’t ease. All eyes will remain focused on the US although a strong lack of volume may see price not actually reflecting full market sentiment. Anyway, and for the short term, there is a slightly bearish tone in the EUR/USD hourly chart, as price trades below 20 SMA while indicators head south below their midlines, suggesting a ride towards the 1.3140 support area, 38.2% retracement of the latest daily run. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings are also heading lower, supporting the shorter term view. As long as below 1.3210 immediate resistance and 23.6% retracement of the same rally, the upside will remain limited.

Support levels: 1.3140 1.3100 1.3070

Resistance levels: 1.3210 1.3250 1.3290 

GBP/USD Current price: 1.6154

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The GBP/USD holds a strong bearish momentum, as per hourly indicators resuming the downside in oversold territory at the opening. The strong came back after the pair tested the 1.6300/10 area continues, and the weekly chart shows a strong reversal formation that suggests bears are just starting to warm up. In the 4 hours chart the technical outlook also supports the downside, with indicators losing momentum near oversold readings. 1.6130 high from early December comes as immediate support level, and once broken, may see the pair continue falling towards the 1.6065 strong static support zone. The upside is now limited by 1.6170, and only a clear advance above this last will deny the possibility of short term slides.

Support levels: 1.6130 1.6090 1.6065

Resistance levels: 1.6170 1.6200 1.6245

USD/JPY Current price: 84.37

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The USD/JPY trades around recent highs of the year set at 84.60, still supported by the latest Japanese political developments, as next premier, Shinzo Abe reaffirmed the need of a bolder monetary easing, and pressured BOJ to keep a 2.0% inflation target. Technical readings in the hourly chart support the upside, as price stands again well above 100 SMA and RSI bounces higher above 50, although momentum stands flat below its 100 line. Lacking momentum, a break above 84.60 is now required to see the pair reaching the 85.00 psychological level, still possible before the year ends. Dips are still taken as buying opportunities.

Support levels: 84.30 84.00 83.80 

Resistance levels: 84.60 84.90 85.15

AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0398

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Australian dollar continues to give ground against the greenback, with the pair trading below a long term ascendant trend line coming from October low around 1.0148, broken late Friday. The hourly chart shows price remains unable to advance above it despite a short lived spike higher, as price battles to regain 1.0400 area. 20 SMA caps the upside around 1.0425 immediate resistance, while indicators aim slightly higher from oversold levels, still in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish momentum remains strong, despite technical readings also show oversold conditions. As long as below 1.0470, the bears will remain in control with scope now to fall towards next strong static support at 1.0260.

Support levels: 1.0390 1.0355 1.0310

Resistance levels: 1.0430 1.0470 1.0510 

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