The increase in excise duty in petrol and diesel yesterday is the first regressive step by the NDA government. The message is clear, we do not want people to enjoy lower gasoline prices. Interest rate cut can be delayed into next year as a result in of this move. Unconfirmed reports suggest that defence related buying has been there this week and could continue for some more time.
The direction of the Japanese Yen against the US dollar will be the X factor for the rupee. US retail numbers today will give further indication as to the month of US interest rate hike. In my view, lower crude oil prices should delay the US (market factored) interest rate hike beyond June 2015. The trade deal with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should result in more global investment in India and should create more jobs next year.
The next three weeks is very crucial for the US dollar. Trade and everyone alike will be looking for clues on profit booking on the greenback before the “Thanksgiving” holiday. US retail sales on “Thanksgiving” vacation could also affect US interest rate futures. Just remember that most the short term traders are following a long US dollar and short bullion strategy.
As far as rupee is concerned, I prefer to wait and watch before going in for a short (usd/inr) strategy. In case usd/inr (inter-bank) does not break and trade over 62.35 by early December then there will be every reason to aggressively short it. Euro-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) will see big wave of selloff if it trades below 75.25 anytime either this year or next year. As long as euro/inr trades over 75.25 long term bulls still have a hope.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): A break of 61.81 will result in 61.96-62.20. On the lower side 61.61 is the initial support with 61.46 as the key intraday support.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 76.77 to rise to 77.29 and 78.02. There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 76.77 to 76.49 and 76.12.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key support is at 96.6575. Cable needs to trade over 96.6575 till next week to prevent another sell off. Only a break of 97.06 will result in further gains to 97.36-97.76.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 53.06 till Monday to rise to 53.96-54.47. There will be another wave of selling below 53.06 to 52.5650 and 51.9475.
The direction of the Japanese Yen against the US dollar will be the X factor for the rupee. US retail numbers today will give further indication as to the month of US interest rate hike. In my view, lower crude oil prices should delay the US (market factored) interest rate hike beyond June 2015. The trade deal with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should result in more global investment in India and should create more jobs next year.
The next three weeks is very crucial for the US dollar. Trade and everyone alike will be looking for clues on profit booking on the greenback before the “Thanksgiving” holiday. US retail sales on “Thanksgiving” vacation could also affect US interest rate futures. Just remember that most the short term traders are following a long US dollar and short bullion strategy.
As far as rupee is concerned, I prefer to wait and watch before going in for a short (usd/inr) strategy. In case usd/inr (inter-bank) does not break and trade over 62.35 by early December then there will be every reason to aggressively short it. Euro-Indian Rupee (inter-bank) will see big wave of selloff if it trades below 75.25 anytime either this year or next year. As long as euro/inr trades over 75.25 long term bulls still have a hope.
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): A break of 61.81 will result in 61.96-62.20. On the lower side 61.61 is the initial support with 61.46 as the key intraday support.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 76.77 to rise to 77.29 and 78.02. There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 76.77 to 76.49 and 76.12.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Key support is at 96.6575. Cable needs to trade over 96.6575 till next week to prevent another sell off. Only a break of 97.06 will result in further gains to 97.36-97.76.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 53.06 till Monday to rise to 53.96-54.47. There will be another wave of selling below 53.06 to 52.5650 and 51.9475.
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