Diwali greeting to everyone. The government is working towards reducing bureaucratic hurdles on setting new business in India and other regulatory procedures. It will now be much easier for any global firm to start its operations in India. These are all good news for Indian economy and people of India as it will create more jobs. But for the global factors, the trend will be for the rupee to appreciate.
Traders will now take positions for Monday. Trading volumes will fall as the day progresses.
Our investment view till next Diwali: (a) Indian equity markets will give best returns. But one needs to choosy over stock selection for better return. (b) Real estate investment demand and housing demand will zoom in India over the next one year House prices will be in an overall bull run. (c) Gold and silver demand will be high but silver will give better investment return than gold. (d) We prefer banking, consumer durables, state run companies where divestment will be done like Coal India, oil marketing companies like Essar oil, private and public companies involved in defence among other sectors.
Rupee till next Diwali: US dollar-Indian rupee (usd/inr) will be very volatile. The government managing of the fiscal situation will be the key. As long as usd/inr does not break 64.10 it will trade in wider 58.70-60.40-62.60-64.10 wider band. The only risk to the rupee is big gains for the US dollar along with over one percent interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve next year. Peace with neighbors will also be the important for rupee.
Usd/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 61.21 to rise to 61.52-61.86. There will be sellers only below 61.21 to 61.07 and 60.79.
Euro/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): There will be another wave of selling below 77.76 to 77.57 and 77.32. Overall euro/inr is bearish as long as it trades below 78.70.
Gbp/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 98.62 to rise to 99.02 and 99.57. There will be sellers only if cable trades below 98.62 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can fall to 57.18 and 56.96 as long as it trades below 57.42. Only a consolidated break of 57.42 will result in further rise.
Traders will now take positions for Monday. Trading volumes will fall as the day progresses.
Our investment view till next Diwali: (a) Indian equity markets will give best returns. But one needs to choosy over stock selection for better return. (b) Real estate investment demand and housing demand will zoom in India over the next one year House prices will be in an overall bull run. (c) Gold and silver demand will be high but silver will give better investment return than gold. (d) We prefer banking, consumer durables, state run companies where divestment will be done like Coal India, oil marketing companies like Essar oil, private and public companies involved in defence among other sectors.
Rupee till next Diwali: US dollar-Indian rupee (usd/inr) will be very volatile. The government managing of the fiscal situation will be the key. As long as usd/inr does not break 64.10 it will trade in wider 58.70-60.40-62.60-64.10 wider band. The only risk to the rupee is big gains for the US dollar along with over one percent interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve next year. Peace with neighbors will also be the important for rupee.
Usd/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 61.21 to rise to 61.52-61.86. There will be sellers only below 61.21 to 61.07 and 60.79.
Euro/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): There will be another wave of selling below 77.76 to 77.57 and 77.32. Overall euro/inr is bearish as long as it trades below 78.70.
Gbp/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 98.62 to rise to 99.02 and 99.57. There will be sellers only if cable trades below 98.62 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can fall to 57.18 and 56.96 as long as it trades below 57.42. Only a consolidated break of 57.42 will result in further rise.
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