The elections are over. Investor’s optimism must now be translated into policy action (from next week). Globally the US dollar has weakened over apprehensions that US economic growth will not lift global economic growth next year. Economic sanctions on Russia has started to hit even Germany as its growth stagnates. Eurozone is also dealing with North-South Divide. People of southern European nations such as Italy, Greece now want their nations to exit Euro and this trend is on the rise with passing of each day. We could now see a new indirect form of currency war wherein Eurozone, UK and Japan all could be trying to depreciate their currencies and ensure an export lead recovery. If this happens it will result in rupee gains.
Intraday volatility will rise as markets reopen after a holiday. Once markets settle down, traders will now start to take positions for next week. Next week is Diwali and there are holidays as well. Import demand will fall from next week temporarily.
Unconfirmed suggest indicated that Reserve bank of India was buying US dollars on Tuesday. If this continues then rupee will weaken further and importers will be forced to cover their near term payables.
Usd/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): A break of 61.86 will result in 62.02 and 62.36. Initial support is at 61.47 and there will be sellers only below 61.47.
Euro/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can rise to 79.47 and 80.02 as long as it trades over 78.76. There will be sellers only below 78.76 today.
Gbp/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 98.47 to rise to 99.36 and 101.12. Initial support is at 98.47 and there will be sellers only below 98.47 only.
Jpy/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can rise to 58.36 and 59.12 as long as it trades over 57.76.
Intraday volatility will rise as markets reopen after a holiday. Once markets settle down, traders will now start to take positions for next week. Next week is Diwali and there are holidays as well. Import demand will fall from next week temporarily.
Unconfirmed suggest indicated that Reserve bank of India was buying US dollars on Tuesday. If this continues then rupee will weaken further and importers will be forced to cover their near term payables.
Usd/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): A break of 61.86 will result in 62.02 and 62.36. Initial support is at 61.47 and there will be sellers only below 61.47.
Euro/inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can rise to 79.47 and 80.02 as long as it trades over 78.76. There will be sellers only below 78.76 today.
Gbp/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It needs to trade over 98.47 to rise to 99.36 and 101.12. Initial support is at 98.47 and there will be sellers only below 98.47 only.
Jpy/Inr October 2014 (expiry on 29th October): It can rise to 58.36 and 59.12 as long as it trades over 57.76.
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