It has been somewhat of a muted reaction for rupee after the FOMC meet overnight and gains in the US dollar. I do not rule out a prepared Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ready to intervene.
FOMC meet has indicated that whenever interest rates start to rise it will be at a much faster pace than markets expect. There has been no change in the language. Traders are expecting Fed funds rates to rise to 1.3750 by end 2015. There is some section which believes that Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (till 2017) in every meeting once it starts to raise interest rates. The US debt market could go bust if there is continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting. There can be an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting in 2015, but thereafter in 2016, I expect very few interest rates hike. 2016 is an election year in USA. There will be political implications if US interest rates rise at the pace as the investors now perceive (after FOMC meet).
The Scottish Independence vote can still add some support. The margin between a “yes” vote and “no” vote will be key to me. The narrower the gap the better it will be for cable and euro bears.
The big question now is whether euro/usd is able to fall below 1.2740 and usd/jpy is able to break and trade over 110.00. The next set of big moves will come if and only if euro/usd trades below 1.2740 and/or usd/jpy trades over 110.00. If this does not happen in the next two weeks, I expect the US dollar to get weak.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs fall below 60.96 or break and trade over 61.37 for direction. Jobbers watch 61.20 all the time.
Euro/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 78.72 for further gains to 79.42. There will be sellers on rise as long as euro/usd does not break 78.72 with 78.1450 as the key support.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 99.31 to rise to 99.7850 and 100.68. Initial support is at 99.19 and there will be sellers if cable trades below 99.19 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 56.40 to rise to 56.86 and 57.18. There will be sellers below 56.40 to 56.1375 and 55.9275. Jobbers watch 56.40 all the time.
FOMC meet has indicated that whenever interest rates start to rise it will be at a much faster pace than markets expect. There has been no change in the language. Traders are expecting Fed funds rates to rise to 1.3750 by end 2015. There is some section which believes that Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (till 2017) in every meeting once it starts to raise interest rates. The US debt market could go bust if there is continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting. There can be an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting in 2015, but thereafter in 2016, I expect very few interest rates hike. 2016 is an election year in USA. There will be political implications if US interest rates rise at the pace as the investors now perceive (after FOMC meet).
The Scottish Independence vote can still add some support. The margin between a “yes” vote and “no” vote will be key to me. The narrower the gap the better it will be for cable and euro bears.
The big question now is whether euro/usd is able to fall below 1.2740 and usd/jpy is able to break and trade over 110.00. The next set of big moves will come if and only if euro/usd trades below 1.2740 and/or usd/jpy trades over 110.00. If this does not happen in the next two weeks, I expect the US dollar to get weak.
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs fall below 60.96 or break and trade over 61.37 for direction. Jobbers watch 61.20 all the time.
Euro/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 78.72 for further gains to 79.42. There will be sellers on rise as long as euro/usd does not break 78.72 with 78.1450 as the key support.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 99.31 to rise to 99.7850 and 100.68. Initial support is at 99.19 and there will be sellers if cable trades below 99.19 in UK session.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 56.40 to rise to 56.86 and 57.18. There will be sellers below 56.40 to 56.1375 and 55.9275. Jobbers watch 56.40 all the time.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.0700, awaits key US data
EUR/USD clings to gains near the 1.0700 level in early Europe on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
Meta takes a guidance slide amidst the battle between yields and earnings
Meta's disappointing outlook cast doubt on whether the market's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Investors now brace for significant macroeconomic challenges ahead, particularly with the release of first-quarter GDP data.