Yesterday rupee weakened against the US dollar by over twenty paisa in the non-deliverable forward market. It could be due to short covering. Supreme court’s decision on coal blocs allocation has been further postponed. This is could be a potential threat to the rupee as well as Indian stock markets. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a penalty will be imposed and that there will not be any cancellations.
Euro and cable are oversold. There can be short covering rally anytime. Unless euro and cable fall below yesterday’s low we will prefer a buy on dips strategy. However momentum is still bearish for euro and cable. Analysts like me are now trying to gauge the economic implication of Jammu and Kashmir floods on India. Kashmir floods will also have political implications as floods could reduce the borders tensions between India and Pakistan albeit temporarily. Peace with neighbors will always will be bullish for the currency.
There is nothing much on the global front. The fight against US created “Islamic state” will need billions of US and European tax payers money. If tax payers money is not used then the US dollar printing press will be used. Traders will start taking positions for Friday US retail sale numbers.
Watch for financial half yearly closing profit taking in equity markets. I also expect a rise in cancellations by exporters as the month comes to an end. (A lot of exporters had sold far dated forwards last year and this year in order to take advantage of a weaker rupee).
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 61.03 to rise to 61.30 and 61.6325. Initial support is at 60.8825.
Euro/inr September 2014: The technical correction is over. It can rise to 79.70 and 80.20 as long as it trades over 78.05. There will be sellers only below 78.05.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: The technical correction is over. It can rise to 98.96 and 100.32 as long as it trades 97.76. There will be sellers only below 97.76 today.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key price to watch is at 57.1850. Yen/inr needs to trade over 57.1850 to rise to 57.76 and 58.32. There will be sellers only below 57.1850 today.
Euro and cable are oversold. There can be short covering rally anytime. Unless euro and cable fall below yesterday’s low we will prefer a buy on dips strategy. However momentum is still bearish for euro and cable. Analysts like me are now trying to gauge the economic implication of Jammu and Kashmir floods on India. Kashmir floods will also have political implications as floods could reduce the borders tensions between India and Pakistan albeit temporarily. Peace with neighbors will always will be bullish for the currency.
There is nothing much on the global front. The fight against US created “Islamic state” will need billions of US and European tax payers money. If tax payers money is not used then the US dollar printing press will be used. Traders will start taking positions for Friday US retail sale numbers.
Watch for financial half yearly closing profit taking in equity markets. I also expect a rise in cancellations by exporters as the month comes to an end. (A lot of exporters had sold far dated forwards last year and this year in order to take advantage of a weaker rupee).
Usd/inr September 2014: It needs to trade over 61.03 to rise to 61.30 and 61.6325. Initial support is at 60.8825.
Euro/inr September 2014: The technical correction is over. It can rise to 79.70 and 80.20 as long as it trades over 78.05. There will be sellers only below 78.05.
Gbp/Inr September 2014: The technical correction is over. It can rise to 98.96 and 100.32 as long as it trades 97.76. There will be sellers only below 97.76 today.
Jpy/Inr September 2014: Key price to watch is at 57.1850. Yen/inr needs to trade over 57.1850 to rise to 57.76 and 58.32. There will be sellers only below 57.1850 today.
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