We know this is a very delicate moment for the Brazilian Real. The upward movement of USDBRL of the last two weeks has brought the change above 2.07, the upper wall of the continuation triangular pattern started in May after the maximum of 2.095.
We know that this is a wave 4 and that the current movement could be the fifth wave of the bull market started in the middle of 2011, however we believe  that a new violent upward ripping will unlikely happen in the short term.
The RSI has exceeded 80 on a daily scale (above 70 on a weekly scale) and this, in May 2012 and September 2011, has intercepted the tops. At 2.11, the upward trend of 2011 would be 100% matched. At 2.08 we can find the 50% of retracement of the 2009-2011 bear market.
A break of this resistance would facilitate USDBRL to rise up to 2.20, but then the long-term downward trend would be compromised.

Usd/Brl