Underlying of course things do remain bearish as I have been suggesting for some time as Iraq pushed up production a bit as did Libya and unconfirmed reports of a forecast of the US producing 12m b/d domestically by 2019 swirled around the market. Opec don’t appear too concerned about the price weakness, mainly as the Saudis are pumping flat to the boards in case of an Iraq cessation, they can cut back soon enough if it gets bad but don’t forget as we reach the end of the summer demand will pick up and the slack will be taken up. No, the person who is most worried about the oil price fall is more than likely to be Mr Putin as a protracted fall in oil revenues will hit Russia very hard.
Finally its all eyes on the US for the next few days, tonight sees the release of the FOMC minutes, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting and Janet Yellen’s statement on Friday…
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