KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Weekly Highlights:
Contagion from Greece evolves as expected – Polish and Hungarian assets down, Czech bonds up
NBH cuts as expected, but surprisingly its easing cycle might not be over yet
CNB upgrades its outlook as it sees risks to inflation forecast at monetary-policy horizon as balanced now
Chart of the Week: Regional FX v. referendum
The CE currencies have so far been relatively immune to the Greek debt woes...
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds hot Australian CPI-led gains above 0.6500
AUD/USD consolidates hot Australian CPI data-led strong gains above 0.6500 in early Europe on Wednesday. The Australian CPI rose 1% in QoQ in Q1 against the 0.8% forecast, providing extra legs to the Australian Dollar upside.
USD/JPY sticks to 34-year high near 154.90 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is sitting at a multi-decade high of 154.88 reached on Tuesday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair as Japan's FX intervention risks loom. Broad US Dollar weakness also caps the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid positive risk tone, reduced Fed rate cut bets
Gold price lacks follow-through buying and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. Easing geopolitical tensions continue to undermine demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Tuesday’s dismal US PMIs weigh on the USD and lend support ahead of the key US macro data.
Crypto community reacts as BRICS considers launching stablecoin for international trade settlement
BRICS is intensifying efforts to reduce its reliance on the US dollar after plans for its stablecoin effort surfaced online on Tuesday. Most people expect the stablecoin to be backed by gold, considering BRICS nations have been accumulating large holdings of the commodity.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Fed might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.