KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Weekly Highlights:
Negative spill-over effects from global sell-off have been limited so far
Poland still remains in deflation
The Polish industrial output for September mitigates the disappointment of last month
In Focus: Updated EUR/CZK outlook and its highlights
Chart of the Week: New EUR/CZK outlook
The one-year anniversary of the launch of forex interventions against the koruna, aimed at easing the monetary policy, raises the question of what the Czech National Bank will do about the Czech currency’s exchange rate over the next year (and a half). We are afraid that, due to external factors (a decline in the EMU’s economic growth), the CNB will again need to lower its forecast in November (2014 this time) and consequently reduce its inflation outlook for 2015. Hence even the question of further monetary easing (at least verbal) through another weakening of the koruna may be brought onto the agenda in some time.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.