KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
With the exception of the Hungarian forint the Central European currencies were only little changed yesterday. The forint continued to strengthen and hit a threeweek high against the euro.
The koruna remains fairly stable after the most recent interview with Czech National Bank’s board member Jiri Rusnok (the most likely successor to the current governor, Mr. Singer, whose tenure ends next July) brought no groundbreaking news. Regarding suspected prolongation of the intervention regime, Mr. Rusnok neither confirmed it nor denied its possibility. We expect that the new CNB forecast to be released in November will shed more light on the matter.
Although the CEE calendar is well-filled in the rest of this week (mainly thanks to Polish macroeconomic data), the most interesting figure – the Polish industrial production in September – will not be released until next Monday.
Regarding upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland, current finance minister Szczurek warned against pre-election pledges of the opposition party PiS (which leads in the polls). Offensive vocabulary used in the speech supports our view that the elections (to be held on 25th October) can be a period of high market volatility.
| Currencies | % chng | |
| EUR/CZK | 27.08 | 0.0 |
| EUR/HUF | 309.7 | -0.5 |
| EUR/PLN | 4.23 | 0.3 |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | 0.0 |
| EUR/CHF | 1.09 | 0.1 |
| FRA 3x6 | % | bps chng |
| CZK | 0.25 | 0 |
| HUF | 1.34 | 0 |
| PLN | 1.72 | 0 |
| EUR | -0.04 | 0 |
| GB | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. 10Y | 0.64 | 1 |
| Hungary 10Y | 3.30 | 0 |
| Poland 10Y | 2.68 | 0 |
| Slovakia 10Y | 0.82 | -4 |
| CDS 5Y | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. | 49 | 0 |
| Hungary | 166 | 0 |
| Poland | 76 | 0 |
| Slovakia | 48 | 0 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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