KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
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NBP meeting in focus
The Polish zloty has pared part of the losses accumulated at the beginning of the last week, but failed to return below 4.20 EUR/PLN so far.
The Polish Statistical Office confirmed its flash GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of this year at the levels 3.3 % y/y and 0.9 % q/q. From markets perpective, the outcome fell a notch behind expectations. Deceleration of investment growth might be the most disturbing element, though we should not overemphasize it either. Economic recovery prevailing in Europe and supported by easy monetary policy should translate into real GDP growth in Poland as high as 3.5- 4.0 % in both this year and the next.
In the week ahead, a National Bank of Poland (NBP) meeting should be in the centre of attention. We expect the NBP to leave its interest rates unchanged. The minutes of its last meeting reflect mixed opinions inside the Monetary Policy Council. Some members suggest that MPC starts considering a rate hike. However, given significant increase in uncertainty during recent weeks and slightly worse data arriving from the Polish economy, we expect that such considerations will not dominate. Rates will very likely remain stable for the rest of this year and we believe that more serious rate hike discussions may occur in twelve months’ horizon.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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