While the koruna and the zloty finished last week only little changed, the Hungarian forint was again under pressure and lost about 0.4 % against the euro on Friday. The main reason for forint’s underperformance vis-à-vis its regional PEERs over the past four weeks has been probably market fears from extension of NBH easing cycle. Besides that, the most recent round of talks about a solution to long-standing issue of FX loans may have added some pressure on the forint too.
Regarding the week ahead, the key regional event is undoubtedly the upcoming meeting of the National Bank of Poland (conclusion of its two-day session will be announced on Wednesday). While the NBP is expected to stay on hold, the MPC will have a new inflation forecast at its disposal. We believe it will significantly reevaluate its inflation prediction downwards, while the related question still is if the bank’s outlook for economic growth in the second quarter changes too, notably in light of the latest statistics. From this point of view, a release of the Polish PMI index on Tuesday might also grab market’s attention.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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