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Our Gold short term 50% Fib level at 1301 and we have not been able to break this in overnight trading. Also the daily pivot located at 1277, so unless we can break clearly above 1230 this morning it is looking like the sellers could be back in control once more. Our short term 61.8% Fib has held the downside thus far, but if 1213 breaks it should give the sellers a green light to at least Fridays 1208 or even 1200 which is like the last gasp support under these current Fibonacci levels. However, we do have to have the 1180/75 support in the back of our minds, and the sellers will also have this area and try for it if 1200 breaks.
Short EUR below 1.2840 SL 1.2855 TP 1.2800-1.2780-1.2750
LONG EUR above 1.2780 SL 1.2765 TP 1.2850-1.2900-1.2950
SHORT GOLD below 1230 SL 1235 TP 1200-1180
LONG GOLD above 1235 SL 1230 TP 1250-1270-1290
EURO @ 1.2828 = Latest change in ECB’s stance putting lot of emphasis on “Forward Guidance” clearly indicates that weak Euro and softer rate is preferable choice. This gives enough room sell European currency on any rise, which should be short lived. Only break of 1.2890 may allow small move towards 1.2950 zones. I see risk for a drop, break of 1.2750 will encourage for a test and break of 1.2620-40 zones. Break would see deeper fall. Range for the week 1.2580 – 1.2950.
GBP @ 1.4881 = Cable needs to break 1.4820 to test 1.4730 before minor corrective move occurs. However, as a long as it holds below 1.5050, selling interest will be often seen, as downside target could extend up to 1.4680. Range for the week 1.4650- 1.5080.
JPY @ 101.17 = BOJ’s decision on interest rate this week may not bring any change, but Governor Kuroda reaction to recent development or his repetition on 2 pct inflation could provide some spark to the market that could weaken JPY. Surging US 10-year bond yield is also bad news for the Japanese currency. Only break of 100.30 risks for a test of 99.60. However, move beyond 101.95 will encourage for a test and break of 102.50 for 103.60. Range for the week 97.50 – 101.80.
AUD @ 0.9058 = Aussie still have difficult times ahead, but the fall so far is huge and for 200-250 pip correction should always be a possibility. If holds 0.8940-50, we see a move towards 0.9150-80 zones, but needs to surpass for 0.9250, or else 0.8890. Range for the week 0.8870 – 0.9280.
EURAUD Price currently is hovering just above the monthly pivot at 1.40020. You will also note that price has pulled back below my HMA lines which normally signal an end to a trend or a temporary pull back at least. I will wait for a daily close below the monthly pivot to look for a sell signal. Please note that this is a counter trend entry and and I will look for the normal entry signals on the lower t/frames. If all goes well I will be look for a target of 500 pips at least towards monthly support..It is also possible that the trend will continue upwards from 1.40020 so I will be extremely patient on this one. We currently have a couple of currencies hovering around the monthly pivot especially the Yen pairs and I expect to see some nice trend changes or continuation in this week to follow.
USDJPY We are currently @ 101.27 in a channel which is bullish for the pair. Looking for a move all the way to the day chart top 103.75. stalls at the resistance cluster @ 101.84-102.26. Dips will give a great opportunity on the way. average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 129 pips.
GBPUSD Cable is currently @ 1.4901. Watch for a bounce back to the .786 fibo @ 1.5051 then a move down to the S7 @ 1.4785 and that is another bounce point. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 146 pips.
EURUSD: With a sharp sell off occurring the past week, further downside is likely. This leaves the pair targeting the 1.2750 level with a turn below here shifting attention to the 1.2700 level and then the 1.2600 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to return above the 1.3000 level to halt its present weakness. This could force further upside towards the 1.3100 level and then the 1.3200 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias.
EURGBP Looking at the daily chart, I see it has been within a 200 pip range for the past 3 months. As a reflection of the pound weakness however it left the bottom on 17 May and has been trying to uplift itself. You can also see this in the channel it has been in, since then.
The H1 chart confirms this and also shows that price was well above the daily pivot point all day on Friday. The upward bias is evident but if it does break to the upside, I will wait not only for the trendline break and perhaps a retest, but also for the resistance area at 0.8630 to be well cleared. Failure for this breakout will create a short opportunity all the way to 0.8420 area.
Den Hong Nguyen
Ej still in up trend , can go to 130.20 then if across can touch 130.65 next then down again, 128.80 still is a good S until now,
Eu up again but slowly, can range 1.2830 -1.2930, if have enought power, it can go to 1.3040 next few days if 1.2930 break,
UJ 99.89 and 89.45 is two big S.
Au can down to 0.9020 then up again 0.9170 and 0.9180, two big R
GU can down to 1.4840 then up again 1.5090.
UCA can down to 1.0514 then 1.0490.
Looking for UCHF down to 0.9560 then 0.9440.
We start from lower ground this week. The round line of 1.34 served in both directions when the pair traded in higher ground. The pair temporarily breached this line in June. 1.3350 provided support when the pair traded higher in February and now serves as a pivotal line.
1.3255 provided support during January 2013 and also beforehand. A recovery attempt failed to reconquer this line at first, but now this line is strong support. 1.32 is a clear top after capping the pair twice in April 2012 and then in May. This is a round number as well.
1.3160, which separated ranges in May 2013 is strengthening once again and worked perfectly well as a cap to a recovery attempt in June. 1.3100 is worked as temporary resistance in December 2012 and is becoming more important once again, after capping a recovery attempt in June and then in July.