$BTC – Bitcoin (USDT) (Last:12699)

We’ve been using 12714 as a minimum upside target, but composite charts available at Kitco leave room for a move to as high as 14711 over the next 3-5 weeks.  Kitco’s data also allow for a possible stall at 12391, so take heed if you trade this vehicle.  I will be making specific trading recommendations once I determine whose charts are the most accurate for purposes of forecasting swing highs and lows.  Here’s a gambit you can paper-trade for now:  Bid 10615, stop 10011, and hold the position for a 12391 objective. My gut feeling is that we won’t have definitive, tradable charts until the impending CME bitcoin futures contract has established a little price history.

UPDATE (5:46 p.m.): The order filled and went live as a ‘paper-trade’ about an hour ago.  Switch to a trailing stop of $350 if and when the rally hits p2=$11,498.

UPDATE (9:41 p.m.): BTC has traded as high as 11560, activating the 350-point stop. To avoid getting popped out of a good trade too easily, and assuming you are still in it, I’ll now recommend substituting a break-even stop at 10615 for the trailing stop. This is not a number pulled out of thin air, for in fact it lies just beneath the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the rally pattern projecting to 12714.

UPDATE (Dec 4, 10:27 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 10717. [As of around 6:00 p.m., nothing had changed. Bitcoinmania has gone temporarily flat, but you should hold to the stop-loss and the 12714 target in any event.]

UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:19 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 11362, still held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714.

UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:40 p.m.): Bitcoin is on a tear tonight, having traded as high as $12,200. Raise the stop-loss to 11629, o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714. We’ve been using that target since BTC was trading in the low $9000s a week ago. (Note: For the record, there’s an alternative target at 12850, but we won’t be greedy.)

UPDATE (Dec 6, 9:13 a.m.) Bitcoin has hit a so-far high this morning of 12819, allowing an exit from the position initiated four days ago for a theoretical profit of $2099. It has since fallen $546 to a 12273 low. We’ll back away for now while we wait for a new opportunity to develop.