Steve Miley, MSTA
MarketChartist
US 10yr future rebound risk
A slightly positive tone on Tuesday, but still viewed as a digestion phase to start the week with further range activity expected into midweek.
The upside head fake last Thursday, faltering back from resistance at 124-23/24 ahead of better chart barriers at 124-31/ 125-00, leaves late June bear pressures intact.
We see a modest upside risk, maybe above 124-23/24, but capped by 125-00 into midweek.
For the week, we see downside extension risk through 124-025 for 123-25/21.
Overshoot threat is down to the key trend line from Sept 2013, now 123-05.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
Above 124-24 eases bear risks; through 124-31 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 125-175/185.
4 Hour US 10yr Sept Future Chart
Daily US 10yr Sept Future: Adjusted Continuation Chart
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