Global mkts surge higher again.....The S&P pushing and testing for the 3rd time since the late February attempt..... You can feel the momentum building....You can credit strength in energy and a weaker dollar once again along with 'better than expected' earnings reports......Remember - last week I said that in the end - we should get the usual 80% of reports meeting or beating estimates.....it seems that we are well on our way.....
Oil has risen 28% from the depths of despair back in mid March.... Now remember when Goldman Sachs slashed the oil price forecast in early January - causing it to trade down to $45.......then COO Gary Cohn and a couple of the other 'brain trusts' rang the bell calling for oil to go to $30/barrel.....remember that call?
"My view is we're probably in the lower, longer view. We could definitely get down to $30" (CNBC Closing Bell - January 27, 2015)
Well after that call - oil rallied from $45.50 to $54....to back off again in early March when they banged the drum yet again....calling for oil to collapse - creating all kinds of trading revenue for the firm.....only to have it find support once again at $45/barrel.... this even as the Energy Information Administration keeps telling us about increasing oil supplies, nowhere to store it, we are 'awash in oil'.....and yesterday they did it again...saying that March output rose by 1.3% taking us to the highest level in 40 yrs.....and oil goes up by $3/barrel?
Guess what? Because even at that rate it is the slowest growth rate since January - so traders now say - in fact- production IS slowing and demand IS increasing.....and the mkt will find a new equilibrium.....Maybe Goldman and Gary want to re-consider the call? Change their view - to generate a bit more trading revenues? We are gonna find out today...because GS is due to report 1Q earnings........exp are for $4.25/sh....... conference call in number is 888-281-7154.
Have you seen the stock lately? It is up 16% since the lows of February....so will today be a 'sell the news' type of day for them? The stock is trading UP $2 in pre-mkt trading ....HMMMM does someone already have the news? Or are the algos just that smart?
So now back to the FED..... they just got another boatload of weak macro data giving them more cover when it comes to the rate discussion..... which just helps the mkt find support to move higher........ US industrial production in March was weak......falling 0.6% vs the expectation for a 0.3% drop. This was a surprise....and is the biggest drop in 30 months of data....reflecting continued weakness. Now to be fair - this was the first quarterly decrease since '09 and shows how lower energy prices and drilling and servicing in the US have taken their toll......
On top of that we got a very weak Empire State manufacturing survey report from New York ....completely missing expectations......at -1.9... and yet the mkt was up triple digits at one point......only to back off just a bit as it gears up for the next assault on the highs.....
Our friends in Europe also did not disappoint the mkts......Mario Draghi noting that The ECB is only just getting started...... (more Kool Aid please) Is it any wonder - after what Christine Legarde and the IMF said on Tuesday? - The launch of European QE was a good thing in light of European weakness.....causing Uncle Mario to say:
“There is clear evidence that the monetary policy measures we have put in place are effective.”
NO kidding!!! The weak Euro - caused by all of this new found money is causing the Eurozone’s trade surplus to triple in February. Exports rising by 4% while imports were flat which causes the surplus to grow to €20.3 bil from €7.6 bil in January. German CPI coming in at 0.3% ytd... French inflation was flat after having declined for the first two months of the year, Italy seeing an uptick in macro data..... Traders/Investors and Algo's loved it......sending European mkts higher.... And it's all good.....
This morning US futures are DOWN 9 pts.....giving back the 10 pts that it gained yesterday.....as 2011 still represents resistance......but the more it backs off the stronger the surge up and thru when it happens.....
Now - what you are seeing is 'profit taking' because no one thought the data would be this weak or the earnings as 'good' - so the trader types continue to create the action. There is some concern over Greece again this morning that is permeating the discussion.....concern that they have still not reached a deal and the outlook is only getting worse.....So you say - who cares? We know this....yes, but when the mkt surges to all time highs on mixed data and underlying concerns remain...it only takes one kind of big negative story to take the wind out of the sails....and today it is Greece (again)
I think the S&P could test the 50 DMA at 2080 as the consolidation continues.....Not sure we will shatter the glass ceiling today...but it is coming..... The focus will remain on earnings and economic data as there are two important reports are due out this morning...Jobless Claims exp of 280K and Housing Starts at 1.04 mil
Also, we will get multiple Fed Speakers today: Lockhart 1:00 p.m., Fischer 1:00 p.m., Mester 1:10 p.m., and Rosengren at 1:30 p.m. Who set that schedule?
In Europe - mkts there are under a bit of pressure on profit taking as traders/investors take some money off the table after those mkts make new highs....Not so dumb.....S&P cut the Greek credit rating to CCC+ from B- and re-iterated the negative outlook......saying that
"Without deep economic reform or further relief, we expect Greece's debt and other financial commitments will be unsustainable".......
UNSUSTAINABLE......and there is the shot across the bow.....FTSE -1.25%, CAC 40 -0.6%, DAX -1.46%, EUROSTOXX -1.25%, SPAIN -1.50% and ITALY -1.16%
For this you need:
Farfalle Pasta, vidalia onion, can of plum tomatoes, garlic, s&p, heavy cream, frozen peas and sweet Italian sausage (out of the casing) and some white wine.
Heat olive oil in a pot...add crushed garlic and one diced onion (Vidalia if you can get it). Sauté until soft and sweet, next add the sausage meat - which you have removed from the casing - until brown. Next add 2 cups of dry white wine and let the alcohol burn off....open 28 oz can of plum tomatoes and rough crush - so that it is a bit lumpy. Add to the sausage and let simmer for 20 mins....season with s&p....
Now add 1 cup + a little more of heavy cream (you can use lite cream if you prefer - but heavy cream gives it a richer taste). Let simmer until thickens...only about 4 or 5 mins.... Now add in the frozen peas.....stir and simmer.
In a separate pot bring salted water to a boil and add pasta - cook until aldente - 8 / 10 mins...strain - reserving a mugful of the pasta water....Add the pasta directly into the sauce and stir - making sure to coat well. Add a handful or two of parmegiana cheese and mix. If it looks like it needs some more liquid -add a bit of the pasta water to moisten. Serve immediately - offering more grated cheese to your guests. -
It doesn't get any better than this.....
Oil has risen 28% from the depths of despair back in mid March.... Now remember when Goldman Sachs slashed the oil price forecast in early January - causing it to trade down to $45.......then COO Gary Cohn and a couple of the other 'brain trusts' rang the bell calling for oil to go to $30/barrel.....remember that call?
"My view is we're probably in the lower, longer view. We could definitely get down to $30" (CNBC Closing Bell - January 27, 2015)
Well after that call - oil rallied from $45.50 to $54....to back off again in early March when they banged the drum yet again....calling for oil to collapse - creating all kinds of trading revenue for the firm.....only to have it find support once again at $45/barrel.... this even as the Energy Information Administration keeps telling us about increasing oil supplies, nowhere to store it, we are 'awash in oil'.....and yesterday they did it again...saying that March output rose by 1.3% taking us to the highest level in 40 yrs.....and oil goes up by $3/barrel?
Guess what? Because even at that rate it is the slowest growth rate since January - so traders now say - in fact- production IS slowing and demand IS increasing.....and the mkt will find a new equilibrium.....Maybe Goldman and Gary want to re-consider the call? Change their view - to generate a bit more trading revenues? We are gonna find out today...because GS is due to report 1Q earnings........exp are for $4.25/sh....... conference call in number is 888-281-7154.
Have you seen the stock lately? It is up 16% since the lows of February....so will today be a 'sell the news' type of day for them? The stock is trading UP $2 in pre-mkt trading ....HMMMM does someone already have the news? Or are the algos just that smart?
So now back to the FED..... they just got another boatload of weak macro data giving them more cover when it comes to the rate discussion..... which just helps the mkt find support to move higher........ US industrial production in March was weak......falling 0.6% vs the expectation for a 0.3% drop. This was a surprise....and is the biggest drop in 30 months of data....reflecting continued weakness. Now to be fair - this was the first quarterly decrease since '09 and shows how lower energy prices and drilling and servicing in the US have taken their toll......
On top of that we got a very weak Empire State manufacturing survey report from New York ....completely missing expectations......at -1.9... and yet the mkt was up triple digits at one point......only to back off just a bit as it gears up for the next assault on the highs.....
Our friends in Europe also did not disappoint the mkts......Mario Draghi noting that The ECB is only just getting started...... (more Kool Aid please) Is it any wonder - after what Christine Legarde and the IMF said on Tuesday? - The launch of European QE was a good thing in light of European weakness.....causing Uncle Mario to say:
“There is clear evidence that the monetary policy measures we have put in place are effective.”
NO kidding!!! The weak Euro - caused by all of this new found money is causing the Eurozone’s trade surplus to triple in February. Exports rising by 4% while imports were flat which causes the surplus to grow to €20.3 bil from €7.6 bil in January. German CPI coming in at 0.3% ytd... French inflation was flat after having declined for the first two months of the year, Italy seeing an uptick in macro data..... Traders/Investors and Algo's loved it......sending European mkts higher.... And it's all good.....
This morning US futures are DOWN 9 pts.....giving back the 10 pts that it gained yesterday.....as 2011 still represents resistance......but the more it backs off the stronger the surge up and thru when it happens.....
Now - what you are seeing is 'profit taking' because no one thought the data would be this weak or the earnings as 'good' - so the trader types continue to create the action. There is some concern over Greece again this morning that is permeating the discussion.....concern that they have still not reached a deal and the outlook is only getting worse.....So you say - who cares? We know this....yes, but when the mkt surges to all time highs on mixed data and underlying concerns remain...it only takes one kind of big negative story to take the wind out of the sails....and today it is Greece (again)
I think the S&P could test the 50 DMA at 2080 as the consolidation continues.....Not sure we will shatter the glass ceiling today...but it is coming..... The focus will remain on earnings and economic data as there are two important reports are due out this morning...Jobless Claims exp of 280K and Housing Starts at 1.04 mil
Also, we will get multiple Fed Speakers today: Lockhart 1:00 p.m., Fischer 1:00 p.m., Mester 1:10 p.m., and Rosengren at 1:30 p.m. Who set that schedule?
In Europe - mkts there are under a bit of pressure on profit taking as traders/investors take some money off the table after those mkts make new highs....Not so dumb.....S&P cut the Greek credit rating to CCC+ from B- and re-iterated the negative outlook......saying that
"Without deep economic reform or further relief, we expect Greece's debt and other financial commitments will be unsustainable".......
UNSUSTAINABLE......and there is the shot across the bow.....FTSE -1.25%, CAC 40 -0.6%, DAX -1.46%, EUROSTOXX -1.25%, SPAIN -1.50% and ITALY -1.16%
Farfalle w/Sausage, Tomatoes, Peas and Cream
This makes you feel like you are in Nonna's house.....comfort food - read on -For this you need:
Farfalle Pasta, vidalia onion, can of plum tomatoes, garlic, s&p, heavy cream, frozen peas and sweet Italian sausage (out of the casing) and some white wine.
Heat olive oil in a pot...add crushed garlic and one diced onion (Vidalia if you can get it). Sauté until soft and sweet, next add the sausage meat - which you have removed from the casing - until brown. Next add 2 cups of dry white wine and let the alcohol burn off....open 28 oz can of plum tomatoes and rough crush - so that it is a bit lumpy. Add to the sausage and let simmer for 20 mins....season with s&p....
Now add 1 cup + a little more of heavy cream (you can use lite cream if you prefer - but heavy cream gives it a richer taste). Let simmer until thickens...only about 4 or 5 mins.... Now add in the frozen peas.....stir and simmer.
In a separate pot bring salted water to a boil and add pasta - cook until aldente - 8 / 10 mins...strain - reserving a mugful of the pasta water....Add the pasta directly into the sauce and stir - making sure to coat well. Add a handful or two of parmegiana cheese and mix. If it looks like it needs some more liquid -add a bit of the pasta water to moisten. Serve immediately - offering more grated cheese to your guests. -
It doesn't get any better than this.....
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