After another week of continued volatility, the mkt settled down on Friday, managing to put in a moderately positive day on a light volume - Janet Yellen’s speech late in the day – Friday - did help ‘rescue’ the mkt and brought some late-day buying interest. In her speech – she really did not say anything that was new at all…..other than to say that ‘any excessive delay in raising rates could lead to inflation and financial instability’ – but is this something that we do not know? Is this something that would catch the mkt by complete surprise?
Again – the talk about rising rates continues to simmer – and depending on the data of the day – the talk either boils over or not leaving us to wonder......so what was the data of the day? GDP and more sluggish growth….Friday’s final revision to 4th qtr growth remained unchanged at 2.2% - this when economists thought it was going to go to 2.4% - this remains in contrast to that very robust 5% rate reported for the 3rd qtr. A rate that is clearly now being seen as an ‘outlier’ and one that is now being discounted. Either way – it is important to note that the US economy did grow by 2.4% in 2014 compared to the 2.2% in 2013….so the ball IS moving down the field – that is IF you believe the data…..
And so the FED continues to give ‘serious consideration’ to the timing and pace of any change in rates and is not laying out any specific pre-determined’ guidelines to hang your hat on noting that there is a risk to moving both too early or too late.
Yellen essentially once again assured investors/traders that even if a rate hike occurred later this year it would be so small that it would be inconsequential. Ok – so now are we talking about ‘breaking the bips like they broke the fractions in the equity mkt – going from 7 price points to 100 price points and in those alternate venues – 1000 price points. So the question now is - Will rates rise by 0.0025% vs. the expected 0.25%? Will we see rates move higher by ridiculous amounts? Will traders and algo’s now start focusing on ‘inconsequential’ like they did ‘patience’? It was this reassurance from Yellen – the ‘inconsequentiality’ that helped fuel the late-day buyers on Friday, rescuing the markets from five down days.
My bet is that they move too late and that the mkts become obsessed with 'inconsequential'.....…… I’m just sayin….........then overnight -
***NEWS FLASH***
"China has room to act with both interest rates and quantitative measures" - Zhou Xiaochaun - 3/29/15
China ignites a global rally overnight as the Chinese Central Bank - PBoC - (People's Bank of China) said that the gov't can do MORE to support growth.....Yellen's counterpart - Zhou Xiaochuan commented that the nation's growth rate has 'tumbled a bit too much'.......fueling the flames of more stimulus - more monetary easing.... and so it was written......this move - like the others before it - is good for China and Asia - and so it MUST be good for the global economy.
Analysts surveyed at the Boao Forum - an annual Asian economic conference - now expect the PBoC to cut rates and cut reserve requirement ratio's in the weeks ahead......Asian stocks soar - China rallies to a 7 yr high +2.5%, Japan +0.65%, Hong Kong +1.5%. The outlier - Australia ended the day down 1.25% selling off on weaker commodity prices - remember that the Australian economy is very dependent on commodities - in fact the total mining sector is 19% of GDP and agriculture represents 12% of GDP - Economic growth in that country is very dependent on mining and agriculture - with most products exported to the Asian mkt......So what is viewed as economic weakness in Asia - translates to weaker commodity prices - and that is bad for Australia.....
In Europe this morning - mkts are soaring..... FTSE +0.51%, CAC 40 +1.0%, DAX +1.51%, EUROSTOXX +1.24%, SPAIN +0.84% and ITALY +1.1%. The news is both about those Chinese monetary policy comments as well as Euro area economic sentiment indicators rose to their highest levels in more than 40 months. The latest reading of 103.9 is the strongest since June 2011 and handily beat the median estimate of 103.........suggesting that a recovery is taking root.....even in the face of a potential Greek default.......
Look - Greece is still playing games.....and they are on the verge of default at any minute.....they are about to run out of cash and the gov't remains at odds with creditors......but - the combination of lower oil prices, near zero (sub zero) interest rates and a weakening euro are all working together to provide the necessary tailwind to get the Eurozone economy back on track.
US futures are exploding out of the gate....currently +13 pts teasing with 2068...... all of this good news now waking up US investors as the mkts churn higher. Don't forget - tomorrow is end of month AND end of qtr - so look for a fair amount of window dressing and action as portfolio managers re-allocate some holdings. I would look for futures to challenge the 2090 level by tomorrow as investors/traders try to close the mkt closer to the all time highs at qtr end.
This week is also a data heavy, holiday shortened week.....Today we get Personal Income and Personal Spending - +0.3% and +0.2% respectively. Pending home sales of +0.4%, and the Dallas Fed Survey which is expected to show a decline of 9 - on top of the 11 pt decline last month.
Later in the week - we'll get the ISM Milwaukee reading of 51.5, some Case Shiller housing reports (non-event), Chicago Purchasing Managers report of 51.8. But the big number will be Friday's monthly Non Farm Payroll report - expectations are for +248k jobs - slightly below last month's reveal of +295k. Now this is interesting because the mkts are closed on Friday (Good Friday holiday) so the mkts will not be able to react until Monday.....So you can be sure that Wednesday's ADP payroll report will be used as guide.
That all being said - April marks the beginning of the new qtr....all bets are off as we enter earnings season....until there is a bit more clarity - expect the volatility to remain......
You will need: Garganelli pasta, Mascarpone cheese (room temp), zest & juice of a Lemon, s&p, olive oil, minced garlic, diced onion, chopped sun-dried tomatoes, 1 bag baby spinach, toasted bread crumbs and of course fresh grated Parmegiana Cheese.
Begin by combining the zest, lemon juice, mascarpone, and s&p in a bowl, whisk to combine.
Bring a pot of salted water to boil – add pasta.
While this is happening (you have like 8 mins) heat the oil in a lg skillet, add the garlic and diced onion and cook until softened. Turn off heat and set aside.
Cook the pasta until al dente, like 8 mins….do not let it get soft and mushy. Strain reserving a mugful of the pasta water.
Return the pasta to the skillet with the garlic and onion - and set over medium heat. Now add the mascarpone and lemon mixture, sun-dried tomatoes, and spinach. Add back about ¼ c of the pasta water and toss together until the spinach has wilted and everything is piping hot, adding a little additional pasta water if needed.
Serve immediately in warmed bowls topping each bowl with grated cheese and some toasted breadcrumbs
Buon Appetito.
Again – the talk about rising rates continues to simmer – and depending on the data of the day – the talk either boils over or not leaving us to wonder......so what was the data of the day? GDP and more sluggish growth….Friday’s final revision to 4th qtr growth remained unchanged at 2.2% - this when economists thought it was going to go to 2.4% - this remains in contrast to that very robust 5% rate reported for the 3rd qtr. A rate that is clearly now being seen as an ‘outlier’ and one that is now being discounted. Either way – it is important to note that the US economy did grow by 2.4% in 2014 compared to the 2.2% in 2013….so the ball IS moving down the field – that is IF you believe the data…..
And so the FED continues to give ‘serious consideration’ to the timing and pace of any change in rates and is not laying out any specific pre-determined’ guidelines to hang your hat on noting that there is a risk to moving both too early or too late.
Yellen essentially once again assured investors/traders that even if a rate hike occurred later this year it would be so small that it would be inconsequential. Ok – so now are we talking about ‘breaking the bips like they broke the fractions in the equity mkt – going from 7 price points to 100 price points and in those alternate venues – 1000 price points. So the question now is - Will rates rise by 0.0025% vs. the expected 0.25%? Will we see rates move higher by ridiculous amounts? Will traders and algo’s now start focusing on ‘inconsequential’ like they did ‘patience’? It was this reassurance from Yellen – the ‘inconsequentiality’ that helped fuel the late-day buyers on Friday, rescuing the markets from five down days.
My bet is that they move too late and that the mkts become obsessed with 'inconsequential'.....…… I’m just sayin….........then overnight -
***NEWS FLASH***
"China has room to act with both interest rates and quantitative measures" - Zhou Xiaochaun - 3/29/15
China ignites a global rally overnight as the Chinese Central Bank - PBoC - (People's Bank of China) said that the gov't can do MORE to support growth.....Yellen's counterpart - Zhou Xiaochuan commented that the nation's growth rate has 'tumbled a bit too much'.......fueling the flames of more stimulus - more monetary easing.... and so it was written......this move - like the others before it - is good for China and Asia - and so it MUST be good for the global economy.
Analysts surveyed at the Boao Forum - an annual Asian economic conference - now expect the PBoC to cut rates and cut reserve requirement ratio's in the weeks ahead......Asian stocks soar - China rallies to a 7 yr high +2.5%, Japan +0.65%, Hong Kong +1.5%. The outlier - Australia ended the day down 1.25% selling off on weaker commodity prices - remember that the Australian economy is very dependent on commodities - in fact the total mining sector is 19% of GDP and agriculture represents 12% of GDP - Economic growth in that country is very dependent on mining and agriculture - with most products exported to the Asian mkt......So what is viewed as economic weakness in Asia - translates to weaker commodity prices - and that is bad for Australia.....
In Europe this morning - mkts are soaring..... FTSE +0.51%, CAC 40 +1.0%, DAX +1.51%, EUROSTOXX +1.24%, SPAIN +0.84% and ITALY +1.1%. The news is both about those Chinese monetary policy comments as well as Euro area economic sentiment indicators rose to their highest levels in more than 40 months. The latest reading of 103.9 is the strongest since June 2011 and handily beat the median estimate of 103.........suggesting that a recovery is taking root.....even in the face of a potential Greek default.......
Look - Greece is still playing games.....and they are on the verge of default at any minute.....they are about to run out of cash and the gov't remains at odds with creditors......but - the combination of lower oil prices, near zero (sub zero) interest rates and a weakening euro are all working together to provide the necessary tailwind to get the Eurozone economy back on track.
US futures are exploding out of the gate....currently +13 pts teasing with 2068...... all of this good news now waking up US investors as the mkts churn higher. Don't forget - tomorrow is end of month AND end of qtr - so look for a fair amount of window dressing and action as portfolio managers re-allocate some holdings. I would look for futures to challenge the 2090 level by tomorrow as investors/traders try to close the mkt closer to the all time highs at qtr end.
This week is also a data heavy, holiday shortened week.....Today we get Personal Income and Personal Spending - +0.3% and +0.2% respectively. Pending home sales of +0.4%, and the Dallas Fed Survey which is expected to show a decline of 9 - on top of the 11 pt decline last month.
Later in the week - we'll get the ISM Milwaukee reading of 51.5, some Case Shiller housing reports (non-event), Chicago Purchasing Managers report of 51.8. But the big number will be Friday's monthly Non Farm Payroll report - expectations are for +248k jobs - slightly below last month's reveal of +295k. Now this is interesting because the mkts are closed on Friday (Good Friday holiday) so the mkts will not be able to react until Monday.....So you can be sure that Wednesday's ADP payroll report will be used as guide.
That all being said - April marks the beginning of the new qtr....all bets are off as we enter earnings season....until there is a bit more clarity - expect the volatility to remain......
Garganelli w/Spinach, Sun Dried Tomatoes & Marscapone Cheese
This is a simple 20 min recipe. It uses mascarpone cheese….a soft creamy cheese used in many Italian deserts. But I have to tell you – it is very versatile and can be used in a number of ways in pasta dishes….and here is one for you…You will need: Garganelli pasta, Mascarpone cheese (room temp), zest & juice of a Lemon, s&p, olive oil, minced garlic, diced onion, chopped sun-dried tomatoes, 1 bag baby spinach, toasted bread crumbs and of course fresh grated Parmegiana Cheese.
Begin by combining the zest, lemon juice, mascarpone, and s&p in a bowl, whisk to combine.
Bring a pot of salted water to boil – add pasta.
While this is happening (you have like 8 mins) heat the oil in a lg skillet, add the garlic and diced onion and cook until softened. Turn off heat and set aside.
Cook the pasta until al dente, like 8 mins….do not let it get soft and mushy. Strain reserving a mugful of the pasta water.
Return the pasta to the skillet with the garlic and onion - and set over medium heat. Now add the mascarpone and lemon mixture, sun-dried tomatoes, and spinach. Add back about ¼ c of the pasta water and toss together until the spinach has wilted and everything is piping hot, adding a little additional pasta water if needed.
Serve immediately in warmed bowls topping each bowl with grated cheese and some toasted breadcrumbs
Buon Appetito.
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