Snowstorm = DUD, but Mkts Getting Clocked ...

So - what of this BIG storm to hit NYC? DUD! Made a right hand turn and went out to sea in the mid evening and left us with maybe 4 inches....Boston on the other hand got walloped - but #Bostonstrong will pick themselves up and move ahead....

This morning - mkts have now re-grouped...and are decidedly lower....European mkts are all down by 1+%....- Banks under pressure, earnings disappointments and general angst all reasons to be a bit short term concerned. UK flash GDP disappointed only adding to the negative tone.

US futures are down 20 pts - clearly breaking thru what should have been support at the 50 dma (2045).....Disappointing earnings from UTX last night and concern over CAT and what that says about the broader economy is all the rage. Again - I think it is an overreaction - but in a negative environment - it is easy once again to pile on. We are now once again in the 20010/2050 trading range and will most likely remain here until we hear from the FED tomorrow.

Ok - so the Greek vote did not cause a global rout yesterday -as it was widely anticipated and was more or less priced in....The Euro did fall to an 11 yr low causing global travelers to consider going on a 'European Vacation'......

The weakest performances on the Greek mkt were banks and financials as the possibility of Greece leaving the euro does create a fairly strong incentive for depositors to take their money out of the country. Although a possibility - it remains unlikely......and the ability of PM Tsipras to control Parliament will surely be curtailed given that his party didn’t win an overall majority. Syriza won 149 seats in the 300 seat parliament and so has now formed a coalition government. In what was a bit of a surprise move Syriza (left wing) joined hands with the right wing Independent Greeks who won 13 seats. This move does gives Tspiras a comfortable majority but it also gives him a split political stance.

Both the Independents and Syriza campaigned against the onerous austerity demands - so expect the first thing he will try to do is tackle the debt burden. Tsipras has said that he wants to negotiate vs fight with the international lenders - that's a plus.....and he will probably get it, but do not expect Germany to bend over (again) after giving in to the ECB QE program. Germany has said that it is not willing to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout. ( For anyone looking for yield try a Greek bond - the 10 yr currently yielding nearly 9% while three-year bonds rose to 10.89%.)

The European reaction was as expected..... Yesterday - the head of the Eurozone finance minister’s group, and the Dutch finance minister, Mr. Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that “there is very little support for a write off in Europe.” Mr. Dijsselbloem was speaking to reporters ahead of a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. He also said that Eurozone countries must “stick to the rules we have” with their having been “a lot of easing of the debt already.”

Greece’s needs to negotiate quickly - their current bailout program comes to an end in February...so the clock ticks....The Finnish Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, has said that loan period extensions for Greece could be considered and this will probably be the way because clearly both Greece and the EU have a shared interest for the country to remain in the Eurozone.

This week is full of data and earnings...so the US mkts will once again focus on the issues here at home. The FOMC is sure to dominate the discussion.....causing traders and investors to speculate on what the Feds will say. if analysis of the comments from Fed presidents provide any hint about the future of interest rates that is different than the summer expectation then we could see volatility on Wednesday through the end of the week.

I do not expect the Fed to change anything... I expect them to say that the labor market is - strong, robust, healthy (if you are looking thru rose colored glasses) and that unemployment is within the Fed’s goals (that is if you don't count all of the people who have fallen off the rolls) but given all that 'good news" the underlying economy still needs us to be patient and that interest rates must be left as is to allow a more 'robust recovery' to take hold.

The question is - What will the FED say about the newly launched 1 Tril Euro - European QE program . Look - as a result US goods are going to get more expensive abroad as the dollar continues to strengthen vs the weakening Euro. Will they address this point? I don't think so....I think that they will stick to the US story of improving recovery and growth...

***Remember I am out the rest of the week - moderating at the Palm Beach Financial Services conference on Thursday January 29th. Back on Monday.

Simple Roasted Chicken

For someone who loves roasted chicken pieces as much as I do -golden brown, perfectly roasted chicken is the ultimate way to prepare it. The roasted chicken should have crispy golden brown seasoned skin, with very moist, tender meat inside.

For this you need. Chicken pieces, legs & thighs (are best) – breasts are ok – but tend to be not as moist. Zest & Juice From 2 Lemons, Olive Oil, 3 Garlic Cloves, Peeled & Minced, s&p, 1 Teaspoon Hot Red Pepper Flakes (optional), Dried Oregano and about 1/2 Cup of White Wine – not chardonnay or anything fruity!

Place the chicken in a heavy roasting dish.
Massage the chicken with the olive oil and then rub with s&p, garlic, lemon zest, red pepper flakes (optional), and oregano. Next - drizzle the lemon juice over the chicken and place the chicken in the refrigerator for at least one hour.

Preheat the oven to 425 degrees F.

Roast the chicken for 20 minutes, then add the wine and baste the chicken with the juices. Reduce heat to 375 and cook for another 30 to 35 minutes or so, basting every 10 minutes. You want the chicken to be golden brown.

Remove from the oven and let rest 10 minutes. Present on a serving platter spooning the pan juices on top with roasted potatoes and a large mixed green salad dressed in s&p, oregano, lemon juice, olive oil and balsamic vinegar.


Buon Appetito.