'Wake Up, Stock Up & Eat Up' - the day is young and global mkts are all higher this morning - US futures are +6 pts - even after a tense and dangerous weekend on the other side of the world.....Military action in both Israel and Ukraine continue to simmer under the surface while news of further fighting in Iraq seems to have quieted down. Global investors taking it all in stride - at least for now.
Over the weekend - Israeli navy commandos landed in the Gaza Strip as thousands of Palestinians took shelter from the bombs as Israel’s war with Hamas is now in its second week with neither side showing any signs of standing down. Casualties spiked as Israel’s military attacked targets from the air and the sea. For anyone who witnessed the action live - the Iron Dome is actually incredible - as it blows the Hamas launched missiles right out of the air with what appears to be very little effort - yet this whole situation is out of control - the international community needs to come together to solve this problem as Israel uses missiles to protect its people and Hamas uses its people to protect its missiles.......
In Ukraine - President Poroshenko accusing the Russians of violating Ukrainian territorial integrity over the weekend calling on the EU to "adequately judge the facts of illegal incursions across the Russian/Ukrainian border by heavy military equipment and attacks by Russian soldiers ..." (but this is becoming much less a worry for mkts).
More to follow....
Last week's pullback did manage to find support at 1955/1960 level but is this just temporary? With all of the negative developments - momentum divergence, overbought conditions, Small-cap weakness, buyer fatigue, never mind the dog days of summer - cause stocks to fail in the weeks ahead. Will the stabilization from Thurs/Fri allow for a small bounce going into this week's option expiration and then will this expiration allow for weakness in late July? Will resistance at 1975 prove too much for the mkt right now?
This week - the focus is on 2Q earnings which kicks into high gear for the next 3 weeks. This week the mkt will get hit with more than 70+ S&P names reporting. What will we see? Is Wall St about to go ‘on sale’?
Expectation are for 4% growth - the mkt has priced this in....so the results will have to be that much better in order for investors/traders to create new highs.
Financials, retailers already showing signs of stress, Energy, tech, housing continue to show some strength – but what about all of the others? So much of the story depends on the health of the consumer - Remember – spending is only as good as someone’s income – and with wage growth is up only 1.9% after adjusting for that ‘non-existent’ inflation - that the government says does not exist – it leaves many to wonder – how much longer can the disconnect continue?
Companies are now finding it harder to eliminate jobs - though many are still reluctant to commit to creating new full time jobs - as they continue to look for ways to cut expenses -with many now beginning to move support staff and offices from the 'high rent districts' into 'lower rent districts' in a renewed effort to cut/control expenses.
Today's big report - Citibank - estimates are for $1.05/sh - but what will they say about loan demand and trading revenues? Projections for the financial sector – a sector that has year to date underperformed – are down - and this has been well publicized- stocks have already been somewhat re-priced as traders/investors patiently await the 'formal announcements'. Declining top line revenues will ‘trickle-down’ to the bottom line causing us to wonder even more about this 'trickle down effect' on the earnings season.
Also this morning we found out that Citi signed a $7 bil agreement (over the weekend) to end the probes of their mortgage backed bonds for " allegedly misrepresenting the quality of those bonds to investors"......Hmmm $7 bil for allegedly misrepresenting? Sounds more like they DID misrepresent (vs. what the agreement actually says) - I mean they are coughing up some $4 bil to the justice dept, $2.5 bil for relief to consumers, $300 mil to the state's attorney general and $200 mil to the FDIC - but this is NOT new news. This is and has been well publicized and Citi is trading at $47.60 - up 60 cts/sh (+1.2%) in early morning trading. A break above $47.55 in full day trading will set it up to challenge $49.25 (200 DMA).
This week is full of eco data in addition to the earnings data - yet my sense is that earnings data will trump any eco data unless of course the eco data is so stunningly different than the expectation. Beginning tomorrow we get - Retail Sales - exp of 0.6%, ex Autos/Gas of +0.5%, Business Inv of 0.6%, PPI +0.2%, PPI ex food and energy of +0.2%, Ind Prod of +0.3%, Cap Util of 79.3%, Housing Starts exp of 1.02 mil, Building Permits exp of 1.03 mil, Philly Fed of 16.
In addition - we get Snow White (Yellen) giving her bi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony to both houses of Congress - Tuesday is the House and Wednesday is the Senate as she pontificates about monetary policy, interest rates, tapering, US and global economics...will we hear anything new? Not so much. Will she have to address the difference of opinions within the FED - sure, but none of this is new news. So unless she reveals something so unexpected - do not expect the mkts to really react on this testimony.
As the global tension ease - we have seen Gold back off from its recent push higher as it settles in - look for $1305 for support. Oil has also backed off from the recent highs of $105/barrel and is now testing its 50 DMA at $100.70 - failure to hold here would put $97.50 back on the radar screen as the tension in Iraq has calmed allowing for no disruptions in Iraqi production - (perceived disruptions did cause the spike higher in early June.)
Asian mkts all ended the day higher with gains ranging from 0.5% to better than 1%..as investors look forward to 2Q earnings....BoJ did kick off a 2 day meeting on monetary policy but there are no changes expected. Japan +0.88%, Hong Kong +0.49%, ASX +0.45% and China +0.96%.
In Europe - mkts are also posting solid gains as fear in Portugal have eased - the gov't offered assurances that the nation's financial system in NOT in danger due to the Banco Espirito Santo disaster last week. FTSE +0.66%, CAC 40 +0.60%, DAX +0.75%, Eurostoxx +0.54%, Spain flat, and Italy -0.41%
Chicken pieces on the bone! Legs and thighs are always best – the dark meat is tender, juicy and moist. Sweet Italian Sausage (you can use hot sausage if you prefer), sweet cherry peppers (you can substitute hot if you like), potatoes, garlic, olive oil, s&p, Italian Herb seasoning, red wine vinegar, white wine, Chicken stock and cut Italian Parsley.
Preheat the Grill
Preheat oven to 475 degrees - In a roasting pan – add in the potatoes (you can slice them, qtr them, cube them - your call) – season with s&p and some of the Italian herb seasoning, drizzle some olive oil and a bit of chicken stock – toss and roast for 25/35 mins….stirring occasionally ..remove.
Wash the chicken and dry with a paper towel. Season with s&p and the Italian herb seasoning.
On Med – hi - Heat some olive oil in a large frying pan. When hot – add the chicken pieces skin side down – do not crowd…Cook the chicken until golden brown – careful not to keep turning the pieces – the trick is to let them brown nicely before turning….You should be thinking maybe 4/5 mins before turning….(but watch – as you do not want it to burn). When browned – remove the chicken and place in the roasting pan with the potatoes arranging nicely. –
Next place the sausages on the grill - the trick is to just get the grilled flavor....stay close so that they do not burn....turning as they cook. When done – remove and slice into bite size pieces. Add to the roasting pan.
Now – add the chopped garlic to the frying pan and sauté until golden – do not burn. Next add in the sweet cherry peppers – you can cut these in half and remove the seeds. Sauté. Now add in about ¼ cup of the red wine vinegar – allow it to come to a boil – scrape the sides of the pan to release any of the browned bits. When the vinegar is reduced by half – add in the dry white wine – not chardonnay – maybe like ½ cup or so….bring to a boil and then reduce by half. (no longer than 4 mins max). (if you want a thick sauce - then feel free to add some flour to thicken it up - I do not think you need it - but that is the beauty of cooking - you choose). You can also eliminate the white wine and just use chicken stock if you prefer.
Now the chicken stock – about 1 full cup – once it comes to a boil – remove from the heat and pour the whole thing into the roasting pan with the chicken, sausages and potatoes. – Place back in the oven and roast – as it is roasting the sauce and all of the parts will blend nicely. You should only need to keep it in the oven for 15/20 mins..... Remove from the oven – toss in the chopped parsley and serve.
This makes a great dish for a summer cookout. Easy to make a lot of it and present it family style on a nice platter – accompany with a large mixed salad and you are good to go.
Buon Appetito.
Over the weekend - Israeli navy commandos landed in the Gaza Strip as thousands of Palestinians took shelter from the bombs as Israel’s war with Hamas is now in its second week with neither side showing any signs of standing down. Casualties spiked as Israel’s military attacked targets from the air and the sea. For anyone who witnessed the action live - the Iron Dome is actually incredible - as it blows the Hamas launched missiles right out of the air with what appears to be very little effort - yet this whole situation is out of control - the international community needs to come together to solve this problem as Israel uses missiles to protect its people and Hamas uses its people to protect its missiles.......
In Ukraine - President Poroshenko accusing the Russians of violating Ukrainian territorial integrity over the weekend calling on the EU to "adequately judge the facts of illegal incursions across the Russian/Ukrainian border by heavy military equipment and attacks by Russian soldiers ..." (but this is becoming much less a worry for mkts).
More to follow....
Last week's pullback did manage to find support at 1955/1960 level but is this just temporary? With all of the negative developments - momentum divergence, overbought conditions, Small-cap weakness, buyer fatigue, never mind the dog days of summer - cause stocks to fail in the weeks ahead. Will the stabilization from Thurs/Fri allow for a small bounce going into this week's option expiration and then will this expiration allow for weakness in late July? Will resistance at 1975 prove too much for the mkt right now?
This week - the focus is on 2Q earnings which kicks into high gear for the next 3 weeks. This week the mkt will get hit with more than 70+ S&P names reporting. What will we see? Is Wall St about to go ‘on sale’?
Expectation are for 4% growth - the mkt has priced this in....so the results will have to be that much better in order for investors/traders to create new highs.
Financials, retailers already showing signs of stress, Energy, tech, housing continue to show some strength – but what about all of the others? So much of the story depends on the health of the consumer - Remember – spending is only as good as someone’s income – and with wage growth is up only 1.9% after adjusting for that ‘non-existent’ inflation - that the government says does not exist – it leaves many to wonder – how much longer can the disconnect continue?
Companies are now finding it harder to eliminate jobs - though many are still reluctant to commit to creating new full time jobs - as they continue to look for ways to cut expenses -with many now beginning to move support staff and offices from the 'high rent districts' into 'lower rent districts' in a renewed effort to cut/control expenses.
Today's big report - Citibank - estimates are for $1.05/sh - but what will they say about loan demand and trading revenues? Projections for the financial sector – a sector that has year to date underperformed – are down - and this has been well publicized- stocks have already been somewhat re-priced as traders/investors patiently await the 'formal announcements'. Declining top line revenues will ‘trickle-down’ to the bottom line causing us to wonder even more about this 'trickle down effect' on the earnings season.
Also this morning we found out that Citi signed a $7 bil agreement (over the weekend) to end the probes of their mortgage backed bonds for " allegedly misrepresenting the quality of those bonds to investors"......Hmmm $7 bil for allegedly misrepresenting? Sounds more like they DID misrepresent (vs. what the agreement actually says) - I mean they are coughing up some $4 bil to the justice dept, $2.5 bil for relief to consumers, $300 mil to the state's attorney general and $200 mil to the FDIC - but this is NOT new news. This is and has been well publicized and Citi is trading at $47.60 - up 60 cts/sh (+1.2%) in early morning trading. A break above $47.55 in full day trading will set it up to challenge $49.25 (200 DMA).
This week is full of eco data in addition to the earnings data - yet my sense is that earnings data will trump any eco data unless of course the eco data is so stunningly different than the expectation. Beginning tomorrow we get - Retail Sales - exp of 0.6%, ex Autos/Gas of +0.5%, Business Inv of 0.6%, PPI +0.2%, PPI ex food and energy of +0.2%, Ind Prod of +0.3%, Cap Util of 79.3%, Housing Starts exp of 1.02 mil, Building Permits exp of 1.03 mil, Philly Fed of 16.
In addition - we get Snow White (Yellen) giving her bi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony to both houses of Congress - Tuesday is the House and Wednesday is the Senate as she pontificates about monetary policy, interest rates, tapering, US and global economics...will we hear anything new? Not so much. Will she have to address the difference of opinions within the FED - sure, but none of this is new news. So unless she reveals something so unexpected - do not expect the mkts to really react on this testimony.
As the global tension ease - we have seen Gold back off from its recent push higher as it settles in - look for $1305 for support. Oil has also backed off from the recent highs of $105/barrel and is now testing its 50 DMA at $100.70 - failure to hold here would put $97.50 back on the radar screen as the tension in Iraq has calmed allowing for no disruptions in Iraqi production - (perceived disruptions did cause the spike higher in early June.)
Asian mkts all ended the day higher with gains ranging from 0.5% to better than 1%..as investors look forward to 2Q earnings....BoJ did kick off a 2 day meeting on monetary policy but there are no changes expected. Japan +0.88%, Hong Kong +0.49%, ASX +0.45% and China +0.96%.
In Europe - mkts are also posting solid gains as fear in Portugal have eased - the gov't offered assurances that the nation's financial system in NOT in danger due to the Banco Espirito Santo disaster last week. FTSE +0.66%, CAC 40 +0.60%, DAX +0.75%, Eurostoxx +0.54%, Spain flat, and Italy -0.41%
Chicken Scarapiello
This is the classic Chicken and Sausage dish. There are many ways to make this – so it is about being creative….remember – as long as you have the basics down – you can make it your own by improvising seasonings etc. Try this one – it is easy and very good. For this you need:Chicken pieces on the bone! Legs and thighs are always best – the dark meat is tender, juicy and moist. Sweet Italian Sausage (you can use hot sausage if you prefer), sweet cherry peppers (you can substitute hot if you like), potatoes, garlic, olive oil, s&p, Italian Herb seasoning, red wine vinegar, white wine, Chicken stock and cut Italian Parsley.
Preheat the Grill
Preheat oven to 475 degrees - In a roasting pan – add in the potatoes (you can slice them, qtr them, cube them - your call) – season with s&p and some of the Italian herb seasoning, drizzle some olive oil and a bit of chicken stock – toss and roast for 25/35 mins….stirring occasionally ..remove.
Wash the chicken and dry with a paper towel. Season with s&p and the Italian herb seasoning.
On Med – hi - Heat some olive oil in a large frying pan. When hot – add the chicken pieces skin side down – do not crowd…Cook the chicken until golden brown – careful not to keep turning the pieces – the trick is to let them brown nicely before turning….You should be thinking maybe 4/5 mins before turning….(but watch – as you do not want it to burn). When browned – remove the chicken and place in the roasting pan with the potatoes arranging nicely. –
Next place the sausages on the grill - the trick is to just get the grilled flavor....stay close so that they do not burn....turning as they cook. When done – remove and slice into bite size pieces. Add to the roasting pan.
Now – add the chopped garlic to the frying pan and sauté until golden – do not burn. Next add in the sweet cherry peppers – you can cut these in half and remove the seeds. Sauté. Now add in about ¼ cup of the red wine vinegar – allow it to come to a boil – scrape the sides of the pan to release any of the browned bits. When the vinegar is reduced by half – add in the dry white wine – not chardonnay – maybe like ½ cup or so….bring to a boil and then reduce by half. (no longer than 4 mins max). (if you want a thick sauce - then feel free to add some flour to thicken it up - I do not think you need it - but that is the beauty of cooking - you choose). You can also eliminate the white wine and just use chicken stock if you prefer.
Now the chicken stock – about 1 full cup – once it comes to a boil – remove from the heat and pour the whole thing into the roasting pan with the chicken, sausages and potatoes. – Place back in the oven and roast – as it is roasting the sauce and all of the parts will blend nicely. You should only need to keep it in the oven for 15/20 mins..... Remove from the oven – toss in the chopped parsley and serve.
This makes a great dish for a summer cookout. Easy to make a lot of it and present it family style on a nice platter – accompany with a large mixed salad and you are good to go.
Buon Appetito.
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