AA ups the Forward Guidance

And she tried to fight back.....particularly Nasdaq - which has gotten beaten up a bit over the past couple of weeks. All of the indexes attempted to rebound, but there was no surge, no oompf, no desire .....the 'buy the dip' mentality was not really alive and well yesterday. The sense is that traders/investors are a bit reluctant - preferring to see exactly what earnings will reveal.....I mean - it's not like we are running out of time.....

We are seeing the Nasdaq now in short-term oversold territory, (the broader indexes - not so much yet) - This suggests that we could see a 'rebound' - but will it have legs? Is the short-term trend still bearish? Longer term trend lines from the lows of 2011 suggest that support is much lower (3700)...or down 9% from here....I do not see that...but it has broken its 50 and 100 DMA's at 4221 and 4153 respectively - so both of these levels are now resistance. Support? well for now it is the 200 DMA at 3925 or down 4% from yesterday's close. I'm just sayin'.....

For the broader mkt - the S&P should hit resistance at 1855/60 as any further upside appears to still be limited at this point as traders await more earnings news. After we hit resistance then another test of the 50 DMA at 1840 would not be a surprise and in fact needs to be tested again - then we must ask - is this the real low for now? Remember - the shift form growth to value will help mute any broad sell off in the S&P.

In the intermediate term though - stocks do feel ok..... Even if earnings are a bit weak - the mkt knows this....(so assuming it is mostly priced in) - If forward guidance is as upbeat (See AA comments) as many expect - then any pullback should surely represent a new buying opportunity which will protect it from a major sell off. Individual names may be unduly punished though if they do not pull their weight while others that handily beat - will draw new interest.

Technicians are watching longer term trend lines for the S&P from the lows of September 2011 - which when drawn coincides almost exactly with the current 200 DMA at 1760. This is the longer term level of support that I (and many others) expect the mkt to test. That would represent a 7% pullback off the highs - healthy while not sending investors into panic mode. For now, this is still too much uncertainty - both from a macro and micro point of view - which is why there is not a pickup in demand or volumes. Will we have a 'Sell in May and go Away' type of market this spring or will investors /traders gear up for better days ahead?

Today we will see the FOMC mins - nothing really new while the FED will send both Evans and Tarullo out on the speaking circuit. Both will be speaking late so anything they say 'can and will used against them tomorrow'! Eco data - Mort apps -1.6% - weaker, and Wholesale inventories due out at 10 am.

After the bell last night - AA reported a loss of $178 mil in the 1Q (16 cts/sh) - Sales drop 6.5% as prices decline - but after you remove the 'one-time $255 million NON-recurring charges' they ended up BEATING the expected estimates. Those charges - closing plants in NY and Australia and cutting production in Brazil in response to the 'global glut' of aluminum. The stock rallied in post mkt trade as CEO Kleinfeld revealed that he was "aggressively reshaping our commodity business" and predicted an end to a decade long surplus created by China production that has kept prices 'artificially low'.....and we're off!!!

So onto other news.......A glitch at the CME caused electronic trading to come to a halt forcing the exchange to rely on 'humans' - go figure - How 20th century.

Next our dear friends at GS reveal they are considering shuttering their DARK POOL - known as Sigma X. Now what is so interesting about this - GS made $7.17 billion in stock trading last year....total....- How much can be attributed to Sigma X? Don't know - they say they do not break out its DARK pool activity (hard to believe- but maybe not as they don't want to expose themselves as never having a losing day in that venue) - IS SOMEONE KIDDING ME? They break out everything....they know exactly how toilet paper is used on a min to min schedule. Please do not patronize the industry participants. But their recent investment in the new IEX dark pool may give us a clue. Does the term "Flash Boys" mean anything? This story is far from over.....Will others do the same?

Finally - the WSJ reports that "Web Encryption Tool Flawed, Researchers Say - Bug nicknamed HeartBleed, potentially exposes masses of sensitive data".....

Mkts around the world are mixed. Japanese stocks got clobbered as hopes for monetary stimulus faded. The losses were driven by comments from central bank governor Kuroda. Yesterday he acknowledged that last week’s increase in the national sales tax was likely to "push the economy into a decline this quarter" , but said he foresees the economy rebounding by summer. In other words, NO KOOL AID. The rest of the region was fairly upbeat - reacting to a better Wall St. Japan -2%, Hong Kong +1.0%, ASX +0.98%. and China +0.33%.

In Europe - mkts in the green. In the UK - George Osborne was given a significant boost by Christine Lagarde and the IMF after they retreated from its criticism of his austerity policies and predicted Britain will grow faster than any other rich economy this year. This come just 1 yr after claiming that the chancellor was “playing with fire” with his deficit reduction plan. The IMF raised its forecast for UK growth to 2.9% – noting that this would be the fastest of any country in the G7 group of leading economies. It also showered praise on Georgy for sticking to his fiscal plan. FTSE +0.8%, CAC 40 +0.5%, DAX +0.30%, Eurostoxx +0.36% , Spain +0.48% and Italy +0.71%

Veal Capriciosa (Ca-Pre-Cho-Sa)

This is a great dish – Milanese style w/ Tomato, Arugula and Red Onion Salad
You can easily substitute chicken or even a pork cutlet – Make it your own.

For this you need - Veal cutlets, flour, eggs, seasoned bread crumbs, olive oil, butter, fresh arugula, Ripe Cherry Tomatoes, sliced red onion, lemon juice, and shaved parmegiana cheese.

In a bowl – beat 3 eggs (add a splash of milk), on a separate plate put some flour and on a third plate – place the seasoned breadcrumbs. (It is like an assembly line)

Begin by pounding the cutlets to thin them out. Now – in this order – dredge the cutlet in the flour – dip in the egg wash and then cover in breadcrumbs – pressing gently so that the breadcrumbs adhere to the cutlet. Place on a plate.

Now heat up a lg frying pan with a dollop of butter and a bit of olive oil – place the cutlets in the pan when it begins to sizzle. Cook the cutlets until they are crispy golden brown on both sides. Remove and place on a warmed plate. Top the cutlet with some arugula, then the cherry tomatoes (cut in half), and the red onion. Squeeze fresh lemon juice sparingly – drizzle some olive oil – season with s&p and top with shavings of Parmegiana cheese. Simple yet outstanding. Enjoy you favorite wine - a nice Chianti works well.

Buon Appetito.