A look ahead to next week’s economic release schedule shows the potential for plenty of market moving opportunities. The releases come on top of expectedly thinner volume in the beginning of the week, with both Canadian and US banks closed in observance of respective holidays. Here’s what to keep an eye on.
1. Eurogroup Meeting (November 12th)
A once highly anticipated event, the Eurogroup meeting has dropped back on a lot of investors’ schedule of things to watch for the week. Why? It was revealed late Thursday that Euro finance ministers are more than likely to postpone the decision regarding Greece’s next bailout disbursement of $41 billion, given the lack of details and conviction. At the center seems to be the Troika’s official report on Greece and its government’s efforts towards European Commission mandates of deficit reduction. However, policymaker rhetoric will still spark some short term movements in the FX markets, especially if it means a further delay is forthcoming.
2. UK Consumer Price Index (November 13th)
As always, consumer price inflation reports remain a headline economic release for the markets. And, it’s more emphasized now, as the UK economy experienced a surge in growth for the third quarter. Although some remain convinced that the quarterly expansion was temporary, the effects are likely to prop up consumer prices – particularly in the short term. Forecasts are for a 2.3% annualized tick higher in inflation, which would be the first gain in three months for the report.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (November 13th)
With the European debt crisis still looming over the Eurozone, Germany’s survey of institutional investor and analyst sentiment is expected to remain underwater. Forecasts are for a -10.1 reading compared to October’s more pessimistic -11.5 reading. But, there is a silver lining. With the country’s consumer sales still supported over the last two months, it is very likely that sentiment may have improved above the forecasted figure. This would be the 3rd straight improvement for the survey, bullish for the Euro.
4. US Retail Sales Report (November 14th)
US retail sales are expected to be a bit of a letdown this time around, considering the surge in the month of September. Estimates are for no change in retail sales for the month of October, considerably lower than the 1.1% jump back the previous month. However, core sales are expected to show continued strength. Expectations are for the gauge, excluding both food and fuel, to gain 0.3% in the month.
5. UK Retail Sales Report (November 15th)
By comparison, UK retail sales figures are expected to be even more dismal. Analysts are forecasting Europe’s second largest economy to see retail sales that dipped 0.1% in October. The decline follows a more promising 0.6% rise in September, and would be the second losing month in the last three. More importantly, a less than positive figure would lend credence to the thought that last quarter’s pace of growth was temporary – sterling bearish.
6. FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 14th)
Given the economic outlook of the world’s largest economy, and the transparent monetary stance by Federal Reserve bankers, the meeting minutes are unlikely to be any more jarring than the latest monetary policy meeting. However, traders will be keen on seeing any rising division among central bankers regarding the future of short term inflation.