AUDUSD - stalled for the momentIf anyone cared about the state of the Australian economy, or at least where it looks to be headed they would have sold the AUD on the back of that very weak NAB Business survey yesterday that showed that business conditions are at their weakest since the depths of the GFC in 2009.
But of course currency trading is all about relative bets and on a relative basis Australia and the AUD still look better than many other investment destinations. So while the EUR and GBP were getting hit in Asian trade yesterday the AUD remain well supported and even though it is struggling to get through this 1.0440/50 zone at present it is actually doing rather well all things considered against the Greenback.
Looking at the price action I have to say I feel a strange voice coming on and a need to say "move along now, nothing to see here" which as you can see in the chart above seems the appropriate course of action - at least on the daily charts. Looking at the 4 hour charts doesn't seem to help much either and there is no trend in evidence at present in the AUD at all - so its a happy time for the range traders.
EURAUD - still sinkingThe Euro had a volatile night as early fears about greece gave way to the talk of not one tranche of money be handed over but the rather bazooka like 3 tranches of cash to tide the embattled Mediterranean nation over. Equally rumours that Spain was about to ask for a bailout and thus the ECB would be buying Spanish bonds seemed a little far fetched but the intra-day market was clearly short and stocks and the Euro rallied into the European close.
But through all this EURAUD retained its downside bias as the bad news seems to hurt Europe and the good news, such as it is, seems to benefit the AUD. So I continue to target a move below 1.21 on this cross on a daily time frame. Shorter term there is room for a little bounce, perhaps toward 1.2256 or something like that but overall I am short and staying that way on this one.
AUDJPY - can it really be heading lowerThis is an interesting one because as I wrote yesterday if there is a fundamental FX pair that should trade off the relative outlooks it is the AUDJPY and it should be heading toward 100, which by the way I think USDJPY goes in coming quarters and years. But for the moment the overall uncertainty in the globe outlook for growth and in markets and indeed with regard to the Fiscal Cliff (I bet Ben Bernanke wishes he never used that phrase) so traders and investors are flocking to the Yen.
At the same time though investors are still favouring AUD with safe harbour flows although on balance with the AUDUSD unable to get through the 1.0440/50 region for the moment the Yen is winning out and AUDJPY has a slight negative bias to it on the daily charts. The 200 day moving average comes in at 82.28 today and bears watching.
AUDNZD - just like the rugby Kiwi has Aussie's measureIs there a double top in the AUDNZD? I saw something to that effect flash across twitter yesterday but I couldn't see it on the dailies. This morning however when i look at the 4 hour chart below you can clearly see that there just might be a double top short term in the AUDNZD.
Indeed as I noted yesterday the inability of the AUDNZD to close above the 200 day moving average was a warning sign so based on the chart above there is a chance for a move in AUDNZD back toward 1.2695/1.2700 as I think we highlighted yesterday as well and if that level gives way then AUDNZD could be in for a big figure run toward 1.2600.
Perhaps NZ retail sales this morning might get things moving.