Japan Tankan anemic as CapEx falls

Asian Mid-session Update: China Manufacturing PMIs edge higher; Japan Tankan anemic as CapEx falls

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA MAR MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.1 V 49.7E; 1st expansion after two consecutive contractions

- (CN) CHINA MAR FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.6 V 49.3E

- (CN) CHINA MAR NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.7 V 53.9 PRIOR

- (JP) JAPAN Q1 TANKAN MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 V 14E; LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX Y/Y: -1.2% (first decline in 2 years) V +0.5%E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 10 V 16E

- (JP) JAPAN MAR FINAL MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.3 V 50.4 PRELIM (10TH CONSECUTIVE EXPANSION)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -3.2% V -4.0%E; Y/Y: 14.3% V 10.7%E (5th straight increase)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR CORELOGIC HOUSE PRICES M/M: 1.4% V 0.3% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX: 46.3 V 45.4 PRIOR (4th consecutive contraction)

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR QV HOUSE PRICES: 7.7% V 6.4% PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.2 V 51.1 PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR TRADE BALANCE: $8.4B (record high) V $8.1BE

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.4% (16-year low) V 0.4%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.0%E

- (ID) Indonesia Mar HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 46.4 v 47.5 prior (6th straight month of contraction and record low reading)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.9%, S&P/ASX -0.6%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Jun S&P500 -0.6% at 2,045

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Jun gold +0.4% at $1,188/oz, May crude oil -0.5% at $47.30/brl, May copper +0.4% at $2.75/lb

- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +5.2M (3rd straight build) v +4.5Me, GASOLINE: -4.1M v -1Me, DISTILLATE: +0.02M v -0.5Me

- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,014 tonnes from 10,074 tonnes prior; lowest since Feb 17th

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥375B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥375B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr

Market Focal Points/FX

- Asian indices are mixed, as markets in China respond to a surprise expansion in manufacturing PMI, while Tokyo succumbed to a disappointing quarterly Tankan. China released PMI figure that showed manufacturing return to expansion after two months of contraction. Output component saw the biggest increase, as the slide in new export orders pointed to tepid external demand. Non- manufacturing was down slightly, bus still firmly in expansion territory. HSBC data, measuring smaller enterprises, topped consensus but was still in contraction at 49.6, and resident economist pointed to "the pace of job shedding the strongest since last summer". Economist with NBS downplayed the rise in the official figure, citing a seasonal rebound after the holiday, but the results still yielded a bounce in AUD/USD, rising about 40pips above 0.7660. Also of note in China, avg prices of new residential properties across 100 major cities fell 0.15% - a similar margin relative to the prior month's -0.24%. China Index Academy added that thus far in march, housing inventories have been falling.

- Japan Q1 Tankan missed expectations on manufacturing side, and industrial capex was particularly troubling as the first decline in 2 years. BOJ noted the unchanged sentiment among big auto makers and electrical machinery makers despite weak Yen, while some lawmakers moved to pressure the central bank into further easing. Chief cabinet Seg Suga however remarked that economic revival is still progressing smoothly. Separately, Japan Markit PMI retreated by a decimal to 50.3, even though remaining in expansion for the 10th month. USD/JPY fell over 50pips below 119.50 in the aftermath of the Tankan data, weighing on Tokyo stocks.

- General risk aversion after the Tankan coincided with the selloff in US equity futures, as S&Ps fell over 20pts or 1% in electronic trade. Accelerated selling was already evident in the final hour of the US session, however the headwinds will likely carry over into Wednesday, with slumping crude oil prices once again cited in the retreat. After earlier report suggesting the two sides in the Iran nuclear talks remain at odds, Russian Foreign Min Lavrov announced the main elements of a deal have been reached and the final details will be agreed upon by June 30th. WTI continued its retreat from US hours falling below $47.50 in electronic trade going into Wednesday's DOE inventories release.

Equities

US equities/ADRs:

- DYAX: Announces Positive Results from Phase 1b Clinical Trial of DX-2930; +49.8% afterhours

- BGCP: Guides Q1 to "low end of prior guidance" of $490-520M v $511Me; -0.6% afterhours

- SNX: Reports Q1 $1.46 v $1.52e, R$3.2B v $3.43Be; -3.3% afterhours

- RKT: Cuts Q2 Adj EPS guidance to $0.70-0.75 v $0.86e (prior guided $0.80-0.90); -5.1% afterhours

- CRS: Guides Q3 $0.26-0.30 (ex-restructuring costs) v $0.55e; intends to conduct restructuring, cut 200 jobs (10% of workforce); -6.4% afterhours

- UTIW: Reports Q4 -$1.02 v -$0.07e, R$964.6M v $1.07Be; -12.6% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: ABC-MART 2670.JP -3.4% (speculation on FY14/15 results); Wynn Macau 1128.HK -2.0% (FY14 results); FAW Car 000800.CN +0.9% (FY14 results)

- Financials: Shimao Property 813.HK +2.0% (FY14 results)

- Materials: Sumitomo Metal Mining 5713.JP -3.3% (FY15 production guidance); Itochu Corp 8001.JP -2.2% (to book impairment)

- Industrials: UGL Ltd UGL.AU -5.2% (provides update on rail corridor project)

- Healthcare: Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical 4530.JP -3.3% (speculation on FY15/16 results)

- Utilities: CT Environmental Group 1363.HK +2.3% (FY14 results)