China industrial profits slump; AUD rallies as Australia Q3 CAPEX improves

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: -2.1% V +0.4% PRIOR (biggest decline since Aug 2012)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) Q/Q: +0.2% V -1.9%E; First increase in 3 quarters

- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 3.0% V 0.0% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT TRADE BALANCE (NZD): -0.9B V -0.6BE (4th consecutive month of deficit; largest monthly trade deficit for October in six years)

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $9.0B V $7.4B PRIOR (32nd month of surplus)

- (PH) PHILIPPINES Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 1.5%E (lowest since Q1 2009); Y/Y: 5.3% V 6.5%E

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.4%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Dec S&P500 flat at 2,072

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Dec gold -0.3% at $1,193, Jan crude oil -1.3% at $72.73/brl, Dec copper +0.3% at $2.97/lb

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 2.1 tonnes to 718.8 tonnes; Lowest level since Sept 2008

- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (1st halt after 33 consecutive drains); Injects net CNY35B this week v injected CNY10B prior (2nd week of injection; Biggest injection in 3 months)

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGB and ¥160B in JGB with maturity over 25-yr

- (NZ) RBNZ sold net NZ$1M in Oct v net NZ$30M in Sept

Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX

- Asian equity markets are mixed and volatility subdued going into the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The most active trade remains in the energy space, as Jan WTI crude oil contract hit fresh 4-year lows below $73/brl ahead of the upcoming OPEC meeting.

- Shanghai Composite is among the leading indices, supported by strength in financials and brokers in the wake of approval to provide online brokerage services. PBoC also continued to supply cosmetic doses of liquidity following Friday's rate cut, with this week's net injection as the biggest in 3 months. Speaking at Caijing conference, PBoC Dep Gov Hu remarked the central bank's FX intervention has been greatly reduced and also reiterating intention to build a deposit insurance system in China. Furthermore, just as more press reports speculated a reduction in China's official GDP rate, Hu said 7.4% GDP growth for China is reasonable. In economic data, China industrial profits slumped, further justifying a more proactive PBoC policy stance.

- AUD/USD is among the most active dollar majors, spiking some 70pips toward $0.86 after a much stronger than expected Australia capital expenditure figures. Q3 CAPEX marked its first quarterly growth in 3 years, and the revision for FY14/15 forecast was also to upside - A$153B vs A$145B prior estimate. An economist with ANZ said the figures suggest firms are planning investment growth of just over 5% in current year, implying recovery in the non-mining sectors of the economy. NZD/USD was also up about 40pips above $0.79, helped in part by a sharp decline in net sales of the currency by the central bank in Oct vs Sept levels. Earlier, Kiwi trade balance logged its largest monthly trade deficit for October in six years, exports of dairy slip 24% while the overall shipments to China were down 40%.

- USD/JPY hit a 1-week low below 117.30, tracking a rally in US Treasuries, while also weighing on the Nikkei225 index. Separately, a Nikkei report speculated FY14/15 tax revenues would be at ¥51.5T - about ¥1.5T above prior forecasts. Adjusted for sales tax boost, the govt receipts were estimated at ¥47T, in line with the prior year

Equities

US markets:

- GSK: Early results in Glaxo's Ebola vaccine trial show no serious side effects and positive immune response - NEJM; +0.2% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: SEEK Ltd SEK.AU +2.6% (affirms FY15 guidance); Vocation Ltd VET.AU -15.9% (chairman resigns); Magnum Entertainment Group Holdings 2080.HK -2.1% (H1 results); Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK +8.4% (H1 results)

- Consumer staples: Woolworths Limited WOW.AU +2.4% (affirms FY16 guidance); Yakult Honsha 2267.JP -5.5% (Danone considers sale of stake)

- Financials: Bank of Queensland BOQ.AU +1.6% (mixed comments from AGM)

- Materials: Beadell Resources BDR.AU -4.3% (BlackRock lowers stake)

- Technology: Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +7.7% (announces first shares buyback in 7 years)