China GDP edges above consensus but still slows to 5-year low

Asian Market Update: China GDP edges above consensus but still slows to 5-year low; Apple posts strong earnings

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA Q3 REAL GDP Q/Q: 1.9% V 1.8%E; Y/Y: 7.3% (5 1/2 year low) V 7.2%E; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.4%E

- (CN) CHINA SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 8.0% V 7.5%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: 8.5% V 8.4%E

- (CN) CHINA SEPT RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 11.6% (multi-year low) V 11.7%E; RETAIL SALES YTD Y/Y: 12.0% V 12.1%E

- (CN) CHINA SEPT YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS: 16.1% V 16.3%E (multi-year low)

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: 4.4% V 4.2% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT NET MIGRATION: 4.7K V 4.7K PRIOR

- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index w/w: 111.6 v 113.8 prior

- (US) NORTH AMERICA SEPT SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 0.94 V 1.04 PRIOR (first time below parity in a year)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.7%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 1,895

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Dec gold +0.1% at $1,246, Dec crude oil flat at $82.01/brl, Dec copper +0.1% at $2.99/lb

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (23rd consecutive drain); Offer yield at 3.4% (unchanged from previous yield)

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 8.9 tonnes to 752.0 tonnes; Lowest level since Nov 2008

- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.09T in 1.4% (1.4% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.318% v 1.435% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.59x v 3.89x prior

Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX

- China Q3 GDP and industrial output narrowly beat consensus forecasts, while retail sales and fixed asset investment missed. Moreover, retail sales, fixed asset, and GDP prints still marked multi-year lows, as China continues to rebalance the economy. Power generation component was up just 4.1% y/y, steel output was flat, while crude oil production rose 9% despite the lower prices. China Stats Bureau said slower GDP was the result of high base in 2013, with employment and inflation situation remaining stable. Mixed Chinese data prints still generally yielded a slight uptick in risk-on assets - Dec WTI crude was up over 30c above $82.15/brl, while AUD and NZD rallied against the dollar by about 30pips to $0.8815 and $0.7915 highs respectively entering the afternoon session in Asia.

- RBA meeting minutes broke little new ground, much like the policy statement released earlier this month. Of note, the central bank reiterated AUD remains overvalued given the slide in commodity prices, while adding that only modest growth persisted through Q3.

- ADRs of Petrobras sold off by over 1% in extended session after Brazil Datafolha Poll showed Pres Rousseff opening up a 3pt lead on pro-business challenger Neves following weekend debates. Runoff election is scheduled for Oct 26th.

- USD remained under pressure across the other majors, tracking renewed strength in US treasuries. The yield on the 10-yr note is down 3bps at 2.16%, while USD/JPY is off 40pips around ¥106.50 and EUR/USD is up 25pips above $1.2810.

Equities

US markets:

- ILMN: Reports Q3 $0.77 v $0.56e, R$481M v $451Me; +9.4% afterhours

- WERN: Reports Q3 $0.36 v $0.36e, R$552.0M v $543Me; guides FY14 capex higher $210-230M vs $150-200M prior; +4.6% afterhours

- CE: Reports Q3 $1.61 (adj) v $1.44e, R$1.77B v $1.74Be; raises FY14 EPS to $5.55-5.65 v $5.32e; +4.5% afterhours

- ABBV: Announces $5B stock repurchase program (approx 5.8% of market cap); increases quarterly dividend by 17% to $0.49/shr (3.6% implied yield); +2.1% afterhours

- STLD: Reports Q3 $0.47 v $0.43e, R$2.34B v $2.12Be; +1.9% afterhours

- AAPL: Reports Q4 $1.42 v $1.30e, R$42.1B v $40.0Be; +1.5% afterhours

- TXN: Reports Q3 $0.76 v $0.71e, R$3.50B v $3.46Be; +1.3% afterhours

- CDNS: Reports Q3 $0.26 v $0.24e, R$400.5M v $397Me; +1.1% afterhours

- MPW: Agrees to $1B in new real estate investments; accretive to FFO by $0.09-0.12/shr; +1.0% afterhours

- UPS: To increase avg shipping rates by 4.9%; effective Dec 29th; +0.5% afterhours

- ZION: Reports Q3 $0.40 v $0.44e, R$532.9M v $545Me; -0.9% afterhours

- TOT: CEO killed in a business jet crash at Moscow Vnukovo Airport - Russian press; -1.1% afterhours

- CMG: Reports Q3 $4.15 v $3.86e, R$1.08B v $1.05Be; -4.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Gome 493.HK +3.2% (9M guidance); Chiyoda 8185.JP +3.1% (share repurchase plan); Gree Inc 3632.JP +4.3% (joint gaming development plans)

- Financials: China Merchants Property Dev 000024.CN -2.2% (Q3 results); Nippon Accommodations Fund 3226.JP +2.4% (H1 results); Haseko Corp 1808.JP +1.3% (press report on H1 results)

- Materials: Anhui Conch Cement 914.HK +1.4% (Q3 results); St Barbara Ltd SBM.AU +3.6% (Q1 production results)

- Industrials: Shanghai Electric 2727.HK -4.7% (Q3 results); Macquarie Atlas Roads MQA.AU +4.5% (Q3 results)

- Technology: Samsung Electronics 005930.KR -1.6% (positive Q4 Apple results)

- Telecom: China Mobile 941.HK -1.1% (9-month results)