Hong Kong's Leung warns standoff may last

Asian Market Update: China HSBC manufacturing PMI still in expansion but softer than expected; Hong Kong's Leung warns standoff may last

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA SEPT FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 V 50.5E (4th straight expansion)

- (JP) JAPAN AUG JOBLESS RATE: 3.5% (3-month low) V 3.8%E

- (JP) JAPAN AUG LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 1.4% V 0.9%E (6th consecutive increase)

- (JP) JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES M/M: 1.9% (2nd consecutive rise) V 0.5%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 1.2% (5-month high) V 0.1%E

- (JP) JAPAN AUG PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.5% (1st decline in 2 months) V +0.2%E; Y/Y: -2.9% V -1.1%E

- (JP) JAPAN AUG OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: -4.7% V -3.6%E (5th straight decline)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.2%E

- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.7 v 112.9 prior

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.0 V 36.6 PRIOR; ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 13.4 (2-yr low) V 24.4 PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -3.8% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: -2.8% V +2.0%E

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 78 (3-month high) V 74 PRIOR; BUSINESS SURVEY NON-MANUFACTURING: 74 V 72 PRIOR

- (UK) UK SEPT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1 V 0E

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -1.3%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi -0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,969

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold -0.2% at $1,217/oz, Nov crude oil -0.3% at $94.32/brl, Dec copper +0.3% at $3.05/lb

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY20B in 14-day repos (19th consecutive drain); Drains net CNY5B this week v drained CNY11B in prior week (2nd consecutive week of drain)

- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.50T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.074% v 0.067% prior; bid to cover: 6.44x v 5.88x prior

- (PE) Peru Central Bank cuts reserve requirement in Soles to 10.5% from 11%, effective on Oct 1st

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1525 v 6.1539 prior setting (1st firmer setting in 4 sessions)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Hong Kong is once again leading regional indices to the downside with few signs that the standoff between Occupy Central and the authorities will abate. Ahead of the start of China's National Day holidays, Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng are both down by over 1%. HK chief Leung warned local businesses that protests may last for a long time, but also noted there is no need to ask for deployment of the PLA (China People's Liberation Army), expressing confidence in local authorities. Leaders with the Occupy Central movement are not deterred despite nearly 100 arrests and over 50 injured, calling for Leung's resignation and vowing to continue marches.

- China HSBC final manufacturing PMI dominated a rather active for economic data session. The final print declined from the 50.5 Flash print to 50.2 but remained in expansion for the 4th consecutive month. HSBC noted "companies continued to cut their staffing levels in September at a modest pace", and chief economist said "the data in September suggest that manufacturing activity continues to expand at a slow pace," reiterating the need for "more accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policies."

- Japan August figures were generally mixed, with strong employment data (rising cash earnings and falling unemployment) but bigger than expected declines in industrial output and household spending. Japan Fin Min Aso cheered the improving employment and also acknowledged the run of poor weather will likely weigh on July-Sept quarter.

- USD staged a bearish reversal across the board, initially trading higher before turning down across the board. USD/JPY tested below 109.20 (-30pips from the highs), while AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose 0.4% about $0.8760 and $0.7820 respectively.

Equities

US markets:

- CPRX: Announces positive top-line phase III data from pivotal Firdapse trial in patients with Lambert-Eaton Myasthenic Syndrome (LEMS); +16.4% afterhours

- SNX: Reports Q3 $1.59 v $1.48e, R$3.54B v $3.38Be; +8.5% afterhours

- CTAS: Reports Q1 $0.78 adj v $0.76e, R$1.10B v $1.10Be; +1.1% afterhours

- FDX: Approves new stock repurchase program of up to 15M shares (approx 5.3% of shares outstanding) - AGM; +0.2% afterhours

- F: Guides FY14 pretax profit ~$6B; guides initial FY15 pretax profit $8.5-9.5B - investor day; -0.9% afterhours

- DWA: Deal talks between DreamWorks, Softbank said to have cooled - financial press; -7.4% afterhours

- AAPL: China regulators said to approve introduction of iPhone 6 - financial press

- GM: CEO: To reveal long-term business plan on Wednesday; details to include firmer financial guidance, will run past 2020 - financial press

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer staples: Nissin Food 2897.JP +2.0% (to increase price of noodle products)

- Financials: Sumitomo Corp 8053.JP -12.5% (cuts FY14/15 guidance; to close JV coal operations); Noble Group NOBL.SG -6.8% (CIC to cut stake); Dah Sing Banking Group 2356.HK -3.8%, Bank of China Hong Kong 2388.HK -1.8%, HSBC 0005.HK -1.0% (HKMA reports several Hong Kong banks remained shut)

- Consumer discretionary: Lawson 2651.JP +0.9% (to acquire Seijo Ishii supermarket chain); Recall Holdings Ltd REC.AU +9.5% (reports of possible offer from Iron Mountain); Chow Tai Fook 1929.HK -0.6%, Li & Fung Ltd 494.HK -0.8%, Cheung Kong Holdings 1.HK -2.9%, Esprit Holdings 330.HK -1.3% (Hong Kong protest impacting local retailers)

- Industrials: Hyundai Motors 005380.KR +0.3%, Kia Motors 000270.KR +0.9% (tentative agreement with union)