China banks rally on CNY500B standing liquidity facility

Economic Data

- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: -0.1% V -0.1% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline)

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (NZ$): -1.07B V -1.00BE; CURRENT ACCOUNT GDP RATIO YTD: -2.5% (smallest deficit since Q4 2010) V -2.5%e

- (SG) SINGAPORE AUG ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -6.9% V -6.4%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: 7.6% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 6.0% V 2.5%E

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,990

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold +0.1% at $1,237/oz, Oct crude oil -0.2% at $94.74/brl, Dec copper -0.3% at $3.15/lb

- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +3.3M (first build in 5 weeks) v -1Me, GASOLINE: -1.2M v 0e, DISTILLATE: +1.0M v +0.5Me

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 4.2 tonnes to 784.2 tonnes; Lowest level since June 22nd

- (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index: 0% from prior auction vs -6% prior

- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.09T in 1.4% (1.5% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.435% v 1.342% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.89x v 3.62x prior

- (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells 10-yr bonds, avg yield at 4.13%

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 4.25% bonds due 2026; Avg yield: 3.7644%; Bid-to-cover: 4.6x

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- China banks are tracking a pronounced bullish turnaround in sentiment in the US afternoon session after a Chinese press report that PBOC will offer CNY500B standing liquidity facility (SLF) to top 5 Chinese banks. That report also estimated the SLF is equivalent to a 50 bps cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and follows increased speculation of a more proactive central bank policy after the 6-year low growth in China industrial production. On a related note, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) said August power consumption of 502B kwh was down 1.5%, which is the first decline this year. Recall the power generation component of industrial output data also featured the first decline since late 2009.

- Trend of falling prices in New Zealand's Fonterra avg winning dairy auctions has finally stalled after 5 weeks. Despite the change in trend, Westpac and ASB both lowered their forecasts for FY14/15 payout to the same target of NZ$5.30/kg, which is well below the latest NZ$6/kg Fonterra target.

- Australia Westpac Leading Index fell for the 2nd consecutive month in August. Chief economist remarked that this marks the "seventh consecutive month where the growth rate in the index has been below trend... The index continues to indicate that we can expect growth in the Australian economy to stay below trend in the second half of 2014 and into 2015."

- Ahead of Friday's Cabinet Office monthly economic report from Japan, a Nikkei report forecasted the first downgrade in 5 months. Report attributed the shift to downside in private consumption caused by "typhoons and heavy rains" that depressed spending.

- Expectations for tomorrow's Fed decision seem to be distilled to whether the statement will contain the "considerable time" language for the lag between QE-end and higher rates or mark a more pronounced shift to something less time-driven. Fed watcher Hilsenrath is erring on the "dovish" side, expecting that statement component to remain, albeit with more qualified forward guidance. Note that Wednesday's statement will also contain an update on staff projections for GDP, inflation, and employment at 14:00ET, followed by Yellen press conference at 14:30.

- Scotland referendum polls remain very close with just a day to go to the vote, although the NO camp appears to be holding on to its slight edge. ICM/Scotsman Scotland independence poll saw 48% "YES" versus 52% "NO" (prior 49% "YES" versus 51% "NO" on 9/12), Opinium Research Poll saw "YES" vote at 48%, "NO" at 52% (prior "YES" vote at 43%, "NO" at 47%, Undecided at 10%), and Survation poll saw "Yes" vote at 48%, "No" at 52% (prior "YES" vote at 46%, "NO" vote at 54% on 9/13). Cable was little moved overall, tracking in a 25pip range above $1.6250 in the Asian hours.

Equities

US markets:

- AUXL: Endo proposes to acquire Auxilium Pharmaceuticals for $28.10/shr in cash, stock valued at $2.2B; would be immediately accretive to Endo; +37.2% afterhours

- YRCW: Guides Q3 Adj EBITDA $75-80M v $61.8M y/y as a result of performance initiatives and positive yield results; Announces term loan credit agreement; +9.6% afterhours

- APOG: Reports Q2 $0.35 v $0.27e, R$231.9M v $213Me; Guides Q4 $0.26-0.32 v $0.30e, R$1.025-1.075B v $1.08Be - slides; +6.8% afterhours

- X: Announces strategic plans, not to proceed with expansion at iron ore pellet operations in MN; Expect Q3 results (ex items) to be significantly higher than current consensus EPS estimates; +6.7% afterhours

- SLXP: Large shareholders reportedly push board to abandon purchase of Cosmo Pharmaceuticals and consider selling the company instead - press; +1.4% afterhours

- FDX: To increase avg shipping rates by 4.9%; effective Jan 5th, 2015; +0.2% afterhours

- MSFT: Raises quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.31/shr; announces changes to the Board; -0.2% afterhours

- ADBE: Reports Q3 $0.28 v $0.26e, R$1.01B v $1.02Be; Guides Q4 $0.26-0.32 v $0.30e, R$1.025-1.075B v $1.08Be; -4.6% afterhours

- RAX: Names Taylor Rhodes as new CEO and a Member of the Board of Directors effective immediately; CNBC's Faber citing sources, tweets: Company to announce it has ended review of strategic alternatives; Will remain independent; -17.1% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Financials: SAI Global Ltd SAI.AU -7.7% (update on potential bid); Premier Investments PMV.AU +5.9% (FY14 results); ICBC 1398.HK +2.2%, CCB 939.HK +2.1%, Bank of China 3988.HK +1.9%, Bank of Communications 3328.HK +3.4% (PBoC starts CNY600B in SLF)

- Materials: Alumina AWC.AU +0.4% (analyst action; aluminum prices)

- Energy: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU -2.1% (press reports on China's low quality coal ban effect)

- Industrials: Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +1.0% (China Communications Contracted interested in assets); China CNR 6199.HK +1.0% (awarded wind power contract)