China industrial output slows to 6-year lows

Asian Market Update: China industrial output slows to 6-year lows, renews fear of hard landing

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.9% V 8.8%E (lowest since Dec 2008); INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD Y/Y: 8.5% V 8.8%E

- (CN) CHINA AUG RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 11.9% V 12.1%E (4-month low); RETAIL SALES YTD Y/Y: 12.1% V 12.2%E

- (CN) CHINA AUG YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 16.5% V 16.9%E (multi-year low)

- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -1.8% (7-month low) V -1.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: -3.5% V -0.6% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 57.9 V 58.4 PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: -8.6% v -9.4% PRIOR; IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.8% V -0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: -9.9% v -8.6% (24th month of decline) PRIOR

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 closed, S&P/ASX -0.6%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Dec S&P500 -0.4% at 1,969

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold +0.3% at $1,235/oz, Oct crude oil -1.2% at $91.21/brl, Dec copper -1.0% at $3.07/lb

- (CN) PBOC Aug fx net sales CNY31.1B v net purchase CNY37.8B

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Talk of a benign slowdown in China following recovery in lending figures has taken a back seat to renewed panic after August industrial output slowed to its lowest level since Dec 2008 - the depth of the global financial crisis. Electricity production - a critical gauge tracked by Premier Li - fell for the first time since 2009, though some have attributed that to cool summer requiring less AC use. Also released over the weekend, retail sales slowed to a 4-month low while fixed investment growth is down at multi-year low rate. Copper and Crude oil are down over 1% in electronic trade on China data, while S&P500 futures fell about 7 handles or 0.4%. Local analysts are also increasingly concerned: Haitong cut Q3 GDP target to 7%, Everbright warned of a rising probability of hard landing, and ANZ estimated 9% industrial output required to achieve 7.5% annual GDP growth.

- Geopolitical jitters related to the war on ISIS continued to simmer. Over the weekend, militants reportedly bombed Iraq's largest Baiji oil refinery, setting it on fire. A new beheading video also emerged, showing execution of a prisoner, prompting condemnation from PM Cameron. US plan to recruit "moderate" Syrian rebels is also stalling, after they reportedly signed a non-aggression treaty with ISIS, deeming they have a "common enemy in Nussayri (Pres Assad) regime."

- Ahead of this week's Scotland referendum, the momentum for the NO vote is picking up. Opinium Research Poll for the Observer showed "YES" vote at 43%, "NO" at 47%, Undecided at 10%. Separately, Scottish Daily Record/Survation Scotland independence poll saw "YES" vote at 46%, "NO" vote at 54% (excluding undecided).

Equities

US markets:

- ABB: CEO said to potentially consider medium-sized deals worth up to $4B - financial press

- AAPL: To receive 0.15% cut from Apple Pay transactions - FT

- RSH: Said to be considering $585M financing plan proposed by holder Standard General (7.1% stake) and UBS - financial press

- NPSP: FDA advisory panel results: 8-5 vote in favor of Natpara risk-benefit profile

Notable movers by sector:

- Financials: KB Financial Group Inc 105560.KR -5.4% (FSC suspends chairman for management failures); Macquarie Group Limited MQG.AU +1.8% (FY15 guidance)

- Materials: Lynas Corp LYC.AU -11.5% (ends talks with Nomura on debt restructuring)

- Energy: Sinopec 386.HK -4.2% (lower despite selling 30% stakes of Sinopec Retail)

- Industrials: Elders ELD.AU +14.3% (announces successful financing results); Leighton Holdings LEI.AU -1.6% (press on leaked emails on bribery); Xinyi Solar 968.HK -2.6% (workers sit-in)

- Utilities: AusNet Services AST.AU -3.0% (analyst action)