China industrial profit growth slows further

Asian Market Update: China industrial profit growth slows further; Australia CAPEX outperforms

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA JULY INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: 13.5% V 17.9% PRIOR; YTD Y/Y: 11.7% (6-month high) V 11.4% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) Q/Q: +1.1% V -0.9%E

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -5.7% (biggest decline in 28 months) V +1.2% PRIOR

- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥609.0B in foreign bonds v bought net ¥659.8B prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥174.6B in Japan stocks v bought net ¥87.7B in prior week

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JULY CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $7.9B (29th consecutive surplus) V $7.9B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $6.9B V $6.6B PRIOR

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Sept S&P500 flat at 1,997

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold +0.3% at $1,287, Oct crude oil flat at $93.86/brl, Sept Copper flat at $3.18/lb

- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.47T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.067% v 0.066% prior; bid to cover: 5.88x v 5.94x prior

- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY10B in 14-day repos (10th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY45B v Injected net CNY11B prior (3rd consecutive week of injection)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- Traders are once again treading cautiously amid fresh signs of a slowdown in China and ongoing military activity in east Ukraine only a day after a high-profile Putin-Poroshenko meeting. Earnings out of US retailers Guess and Williams-Sonoma were also largely disappointing, both containing a very soft outlook for the 3rd quarter.

- China industrial profits YTD rose slightly on y/y basis, but July y/y slowed from June. HSBC China economist noted weak growth in sectors impacted by overcapacity as well as declines in jewellry and other high-end tickets, adding PBoC is increasingly justified to respond with a "comprehensive cut of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks or (even) a policy rate cut." Also of note in China, regulators are considering expanding Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) trial to Switzerland and Luxembourg for stocks and bonds, potentially bringing more buyers from some of the wealthier regions out of growth-deprived eurozone landscape.

- Australia is a surprisingly brighter spot in terms of economic data. Q2 private CAPEX topped forecasts, but more importantly the revision in estimates for FY14/15 was to the upside at A$145.2B vs $137.1B prior estimate. Analysts suggested this forward-looking indicator could renew speculation of an RBA rate hike by late 2014 / early 2015, sending AUD/USD up about 40pips to $0.9370 and S&P/ASX lower. Among key Australia earnings, Qantas confirmed the split of its international and domestic units while posting a net loss of A$649M, not as bad as feared A$750-770M range.

- Despite the expressed commitment to political process toward peace by Ukraine's Poroshenko and Russia's Putin at their meeting, military incursions reportedly continued across the border by Russian troops. US State Dept is calling the latest reports of Russian incursions indicative of a counteroffensive in support of the rebel forces, while German Chanceller Merkel noted the progress on the issue has not been satisfactory.

Equities

US markets:

- WDAY: Reports Q2 -$0.11 v -$0.14e, R$186.8M v $176Me; +0.8% afterhours

- GES: Reports Q2 $0.26 v $0.28e, R$609M v $619Me; -7.7% afterhours

- WSM: Reports Q2 $0.53 v $0.53e, R$1.04B v $1.04Be, guides Q3 $0.58-0.63 v $0.65e, R$1.10-1.13B v $1.13Be, SSS +4-6%; -11.4% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Corporate Travel Management CTD.AU +5.7% (FY14 results); Qantas Airways QAN.AU +6.8% (FY14 results); Billabong BBG.AU -3.6% (FY14 results); Hisense Kelon Electrical Holdings 921.HK -2.3% (H1 results)

- Financials: Perpetual PPT.AU -4.7% (FY14 results); China Life 2628.HK +1.6% (H1 results)

- Materials: Sedgman Ltd SDM.AU +5.9% (FY14 results)

- Energy: Ausdrill ASL.AU +13.1% (FY14 results)

- Industrials: Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy 600320.CN +1.2% (to sell asset)

- Technology: Lenovo 992.HK +1.0% (comments on lawsuit settlement)