China posts record trade surplus

Asian Market Update: Obama authorizes strikes on ISIS; China posts record trade surplus; BOJ cuts view on exports and output

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA JULY TRADE BALANCE: $47.3B (record high surplus) V $26.0BE

- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF ¥60-70T (AS EXPECTED); Maintains overall economic assessment; Downgrades Exports and Industrial Output; Upgrades Wages and Labor Conditions

- (JP) JAPAN Q2 HOUSING LOANS Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.9% PRIOR

- (JP) JAPAN JUL BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 2.2% (3-month low) V 2.3% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 2.3% V 2.5% PRIOR

- (JP) JAPAN JUNE BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -¥399B V -¥326BE; BOP ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥126B (3rd consecutive surplus) V ¥109BE; TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -¥537B V -¥593BE

- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN HOME LOANS M/M: 0.2% V 0.6%E; INVESTMENT LENDING: -0.3% V -0.9% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED LOAN VALUE: +1.8% V -0.7% PRIOR

- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE AT 3.75% (NOT EXPECTED)

Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 -2.9%, S&P/ASX -1.0%, Kospi -1.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Sept S&P500 -0.6% at 1,893

Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies

- Dec gold +0.4% at $1,317, Sept crude oil +1.0% at $98.27/brl, Sept Copper flat at $3.17/lb

- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,101 tonnes from 10,034 tonnes prior (highest since June 30th)

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2020 bonds; avg yield 2.9522%; bid-to-cover: 3.21x

- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending Aug 6th: $4.41T v $4.41T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.37T v $4.36T prior; M1: -$9.5B (first decline in 3 weeks) v +$17.8B prior; M2: +$29.2B v +$23.5B prior; M1 y/y change: 11.4% (1-year high) v 11.2% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.7% (11-month high) v 6.6% w/w

- (CN) China MoF sells 20-yr bonds at average yield of 4.62%

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1562 v 6.1670 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Jul 22nd)

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

- After much speculation over intervention in northern Iraq, where ISIS atrocities against the Kurdish Yazidi sect killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands in recent days, president Obama threatened targeted air strikes if militants move on the city of Erbil where US advisors are stationed. Calling it a humanitarian mission to prevent genocide, US military aircraft have already started to make drops of water and food supply to some 40K Iraqis stranded on mountain ranges faced with death by ISIS or starvation. US officials further clarified that air strikes have not yet taken place and reiterated US will not put boots on the ground to fight militants, but maintained the need to fill a political vacuum with more "moderate" forces to return Iraq to stability. Risk aversion related flows spiked on the announcement - S&P futures fell about 15 handles below 1,895, yield on the US 10-yr fell 5bps to 2.38%, Gold rose nearly $10 to $1,318, and USD/JPY cratered over 50pips below 101.60. Oil futures were also up about 1% on geopolitical ramifications. Nikkei fell as much as 3% - it lowest levels since mid-June.

- Shanghai Composite is the only regional index with mild declines, erasing post Obama-conference losses on much stronger than expected China trade data. $47B surplus for July is a record high, and even though imports surprisingly fell 1.6%, double-digit rise in exports more than made up for that decline. Shipments to Europe were particularly strong, up about 17% y/y, while exports to Japan reversed last month's drop with a 3% increase.

- Monetary policy statement from the BOJ saw the central bank maintain its overall economic assessment unchanged for the 12th consecutive meeting, but also downgraded its view on exports and industrial output as had been speculated in local press. BOJ said exports "have shown some weakness", and also added output "recently shown some weakness" though still increasing moderately as a trend. BOJ was also a bit more upbeat on wages, noting "employment and income situation is improving steadily".

- Aussie dollar is the biggest loser in the dollar majors, driven by risk-off sentiment on Iraq announcement as well as concurrently released RBA quarterly policy statement. RBA cut its 2014 and 2015 GDP targets by 0.25pts to 2.5% and 2.75% (midpoint) respectively, and also narrowed lower its 2016 growth projection to 2.75-3.75% v 2.75-4.25% prior forecast. On inflation, RBA lowers 2014 core CPI target to 2.25% v 2.5% prior, but raised 2015 CPI to 2.75% midpoint from 2.5%. Following the release of 12-year high unemployment rate from Australia earlier this week, RBA said the jobless rate is likely to remain elevated for some time yet and might not decline substantially until 2016. AUD/USD hit 2-month lows of $0.9240, down over 30pips from opening highs, while AUD/JPY was off by as much as 80pips below ¥94.00.

Equities

US markets:

- SHOR: Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.05e, R$88.6M v $85.4Me; +14.5% afterhours

- MELI: Reports Q2 $0.72 v $0.56e, R$131.8M v $107Me; +13.6% afterhours

- ANET: Reports Q2 $0.35 v $0.13e, R$137.9M v $126Me; +9.1% afterhours

- TKMR: FDA Modifies TKM-Ebola Clinical Hold to Partial Hold; +8.1% afterhours

- LULU: Founder Dennis Wilson to reportedly sells half of stake to Advent, move would take hostile takeover and proxy fight off the table - press; +6.1% afterhours

- GPS: Reports Q2 Rev $3.98B v $3.97Be; July SSS +2.0% v +1.0%e; +5.1% afterhours

- NVDA: Reports Q2 $0.30 v $0.19e, R$1.10B v $1.11Be; +4.4% afterhours

- ELX: Reports Q4 $0.07 v $0.03e, R$99.8M v $96.3Me; +4.1% afterhours

- SCTY: Reports Q2 -$0.96 (adj) v -$1.00e, R$61.3M v $61.3Me, energy contracts 28.3K v 17.3K q/q; +3.1% afterhours

- MNST: Reports Q2 $0.81 v $0.76e, R$779.0M v $697Me; +2.5% afterhours

- LGF: Reports Q1 $0.36 v $0.13e, R$449.4M v $475Me; +1.8% afterhours

- CBS: Reports Q2 $0.78 v $0.72e, R$3.19B v $3.30Be; increases dividend 25%; increases buyback program $3B (10% of market cap) to $6B; +0.2% afterhours

- NWSA: Reports Q4 $0.01 v $0.04e, R$2.19B v $2.18Be; flat afterhours

- MDRX: Reports Q2 $0.09 v $0.09e, R$351M v $353Me; -2.0% afterhours

- CSC: Reports Q1 $1.03 v $0.94e, R$3.24B v $3.20Be; -2.2% afterhours

- FI: Reports Q2 $0.23 v $0.31e, R$272.9M v $282Me; Doubles quarterly dividend to $0.15/shr (implied yield 2.6%); -4.6% afterhours

- HIBB: Reports prelim Q2 $0.30-0.32 v $0.40e; R$194M v $203Me; Lowers FY14 EPS to $2.63-2.73 v $2.89e (prior $2.78-2.98); -6.4% afterhours

- ZNGA: Reports Q2 $0.00 v $0.00e, R$153.2M v $192Me; -7.5% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Great Wall Motor 2333.HK -2.7% (July operating results); Huayi Compressor 000404.CN +1.2% (H1 results); Yamada Denki 9831.JP

-8.3% (Q1 results); Asics Corp 7936.JP +5.7% (Q1 results); K's Holdings 8282.JP +4.2% (Q1 results); Olympus Corp 7733.JP -9.3% (Q1 results); Kasai Kogyo Co 7256.JP +3.7%(Q1 results)

- Financials: China Vanke 2202.HK -7.0%, Anhui Conch Cement 914.HK -2.5% (lower on high AH premium); Resorttrust Inc 4681.JP +6.4% (Q1 results)

- Materials: Rio RIO.AU -0.2% (H1 results); Mitsubishi Materials 5711.JP -9.5% (Q1 results); Sumitomo Metal Mining 5713.JP -8.1% (Q1 results)

- Industrials: Taiyo Yuden 6976.JP -9.9% (Q1 results); NHK Spring Co 5991.JP -5.0% (Q1 results)

- Technology: Nikon Corp 7731.JP -9.3% (Q1 results; lowers FY14/15 results); Japan Display 6740.JP -9.9% (Q1 results)

- Healthcare: Sawai Pharmaceutical 4555.JP -5.1% (Q1 results)

- Telecom: China Unicom 762.HK -2.3% (H1 results)