USD/CHF and cable were the main movers in overnight trade, with the USD losing ground in both cases in mainly technical trade. Both the GBP and the CHF were heavily oversold according to many technical indicators and the market has adjusted to work through these measures. The JPY remains weak across the board and today’s Japanese retail sales may give some indication as to whether recent government rhetoric has enthused consumers.
USD/CHF was quite volatile at times, spiking below .9200 on a stop-loss run before settling near the 61.8% retracement level (see chart). I still like this pair higher and dips are buying opportunities in my opinion.
EUR/CHF is still consolidating its recent gains and deeper dips to 1.2270 still remain a possibility (see chart) but once again buying dips is preferred.
EUR/USD has edged higher towards reportedly large sell orders at 1.3500, with barriers anticipated at this level and Sovereign sellers also seen. Dips have been shallow so far and with momentum still very bullish for the EUR across the board, an eventual break seems likely.
USD/JPY is making itself comfortable back above 90.00 and this will be encouraging to the bulls in the market, of whom there are a lot. None of the main crosses are showing any strong signs of topping formations, so sticking with the sell-Yen-rally strategy makes the most sense. Personally I still feel that the market is ‘too short too soon’ on the Yen but we contrarians need to show some patience.
Cable has managed its first decent recovery for a while and whilst it’s still in sell-rally mode, there are certain to be trailing stops along the way (like above 1.5800 for instance).
The AUD has also rallied, mainly against the USD, but it’s having a hard time working through sizeable hedge fund sell orders.
USD/CAD orders are also reported, with buyers seen between 1.0000/20.
Good luck today.